Squawk Pod: OpenAI’s eye-popping raise & hair today, hair forever - 04/01/26 | Audio Only
Speakers
Summary
- OpenAI Funding & Valuation: Closed a $122B funding round, led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, raising its valuation to $852B. ARK Invest participated and will add OpenAI shares to several of its ETFs (ARKW, ARKF).
- Cathie Wood's AI Thesis: Believes AI is the biggest catalyst for innovation in history, driving a technology revolution. Sees an "entrepreneurial explosion" where individuals can start businesses using tools like ChatGPT.
- ARK's Role & Performance: Positions itself as a bridge from private to public markets for innovation. Wood defends ARK's performance, noting it compares favorably to mid-cap growth indexes over 10 years with ~13% returns since inception.
- Bitcoin Outlook: Wood believes Bitcoin is in a "bottoming out phase," viewing recent ~50% pullbacks as a victory compared to past 80-95% crashes, citing institutional adoption and its role as a proven monetary system.
- Nike's Struggles: Reported a sales warning, expecting a 20% decline in China for the current quarter and a 2-4% overall sales drop. Stock has fallen sharply from its highs, with cultural missteps and direct-to-consumer transition cited as contributing factors.
- Geopolitical & Oil Market Risk: Focus on the Strait of Hormuz closure. UAE considering joining a military coalition to reopen it by force. Oil prices (WTI ~$100) cooled on hopes of de-escalation, but regional capitals are on edge ahead of a key presidential address.
- SpaceX IPO Plans: Reportedly partnering with over 20 banks (e.g., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs) for a potential blockbuster IPO as early as June, codenamed "Project Apex."
- Hair Loss Treatment Market: Veradermics' stock is up ~67% since its February IPO. Its lead drug (VD-PHL01) is an oral, sustained-release minoxidil pill in Phase 3 trials for pattern hair loss, a condition affecting ~80M Americans with no new drug approval in nearly 30 years.
- Investment Democratization Theme: A recurring theme is providing retail access to premier private assets (e.g., OpenAI via ARK ETFs, potential retail allocation in SpaceX IPO).
Trade Ideas
Kernan criticizes Nike's cultural/political stances, stating he no longer buys its products, and links it to a "woke goes broke" portfolio. He notes the stock is down from ~$179 to ~$60B market cap. The commentary directly ties brand alienation to financial underperformance. This is compounded by the news segment highlighting Nike's warning of a 20% sales decline in China and overall sales drop. AVOID due to a combination of self-inflicted brand damage, significant loss of market value, and deteriorating fundamental outlook in a key market (China). Successful execution of CEO's turnaround plan, stabilization in China.
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, a critical oil chokepoint. The UAE is reportedly preparing to join a military coalition to reopen it by force, while the U.S. president has suggested disengaging. The situation is unstable and binary. A forced reopening could be explosive, while a prolonged closure severely constrains global oil supply. Market relief (lower oil prices) is based on hope for de-escalation, not resolution. WATCH due to high geopolitical uncertainty with direct, massive implications for global oil supply and prices. The upcoming U.S. presidential address is a key catalyst. Rapid diplomatic resolution or, conversely, a significant military escalation.
ARK Invest participated in OpenAI's $122B funding round and will add its shares to ARKW and ARKF ETFs, serving as a "bridge from the private markets into the public markets." Wood calls AI "the biggest catalyst for innovation in history." Providing ETF access democratizes investment in a leading, high-value private company poised to benefit from this revolution. LONG due to direct investment, strategic positioning as a gateway for public investors, and alignment with a core, high-conviction technological shift. Extreme valuation ($852B), execution risk, and the illiquid nature of the holding within a liquid ETF structure.
Wood states Bitcoin is in a "bottoming out phase" and that a ~50% drawdown would be considered a "real victory" compared to historical 85-95% collapses, calling it a "proven technology" and "proven monetary system." The "institutionalization" of Bitcoin is creating an asset class with low correlation to others, making it more resilient. She notes research into quantum-resistant wallets mitigates a key perceived risk. LONG based on the view that the worst of the "crypto winter" is over and the asset is transitioning to a more mature, institutional phase. Regulatory shifts, failure of institutional adoption to materialize, and quantum computing threats.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published April 01, 2026, features Joe Kernen, Dan Murphy, Cathie Wood discussing NKE, USO, OPENAI, BTC. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Joe Kernen, Dan Murphy, Cathie Wood · Tickers: NKE, USO, OPENAI, BTC