[체슬리모닝브리프] 뉴욕증시, 소매 판매 부진 혼조 마감…경기 둔화 우려 확산 [26/02/11]

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 11, 2026 at 00:27  |  1:51:02  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Seo Hyeong — Assistant Manager
Choi Ho — Vice President
Jun Yeok Joo-im — Analyst
Oh Woo-seok — Domestic Market Analyst
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist
Wang Jeong — Department Head

Summary

The morning brief covered mixed US markets after weak retail sales, falling Treasury yields, and a rotation out of defensives and semiconductors into selective tech and travel names. The team reviewed crypto, including Bitcoin's support test and Strategy's balance-sheet resilience, then discussed Spotify's strong earnings and Robinhood's crypto-linked weakness. In Korea, they highlighted MSCI index changes, inbound tourism plays like Shinsegae, semiconductor component strength at Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and domestic demand value stocks. The China segment focused on Xiaomi's margin pressure from memory prices and Apple's relative advantage, ending with an investment-versus-trading philosophy discussion.

  • US retail sales missed, 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.14%, and major indices were mixed.
  • Spotify beat earnings on MAU growth and margin expansion; Robinhood missed and remains highly correlated to Bitcoin.
  • Bitcoin tested key support while Strategy was framed as a leveraged but risky Bitcoin proxy.
  • Korean domestic market saw MSCI inclusions and exclusions, strong inbound tourism, and semiconductor component opportunities.
  • Shinsegae and Samsung Electro-Mechanics were highlighted with positive report theses.
  • China review focused on Xiaomi's memory-cost pressure and Apple's potential share gains.
  • The hosts discussed investment versus trading discipline and domestic demand value stocks.
Ideas
Seo Hyeong Assistant Manager 9:03
Micron loses HBM4 race, weakness persists.
Micron has been underperforming because it appears to have lost the HBM4 race, and the market is watching its comments at the upcoming semiconductor conference for any guidance or order updates.
Seo Hyeong Assistant Manager 9:36
TSMC revenue strong, guidance on track.
TSMC reported January revenue up about 37% YoY and is tracking its annual growth guidance, with the strong figure partly aided by Lunar New Year timing but still confirming solid demand.
Seo Hyeong Assistant Manager 12:33
Oracle benefits from OpenAI data center scale.
Oracle's large backlog is heavily tied to OpenAI, so improving investor sentiment toward OpenAI and potential funding would accelerate Oracle's data-center ramp and cash generation.
Seo Hyeong Assistant Manager 14:03
Astera Labs guidance disappoints, stock declines.
Astera Labs beat slightly but gave disappointing guidance, and with semiconductor expectations already high, the stock fell after hours.
Seo Hyeong Assistant Manager 15:15
Marriott guidance strong, travel demand resilient.
Marriott's adjusted EBITDA guidance exceeded consensus, with international cross-border travel, leisure and business demand, and card fees all resilient, supporting a positive read-through for hotel chains.
Bitcoin passes first hurdle, watch support.
Bitcoin has passed a first contrarian hurdle as bearish FT coverage and Strategy's buying support sentiment, but it is testing key support; a break below could lead to deeper drawdown, so it is a monitored setup.
Strategy survives bear market, leveraged Bitcoin proxy.
Strategy has roughly 2.3 years of cash to cover interest and preferred dividends, convertible debt maturities spread from 2027 to 2032, and a bitcoin-per-share accretion strategy, so it can likely survive a prolonged crypto winter and act as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, though extreme Bitcoin weakness remains a solvency risk.
Choi Ho Vice President 33:43
Spotify earnings beat, platform moat strong.
Spotify beat across revenue, operating profit, margin and EPS, grew MAU above consensus, and management argued that even as AI makes software creation easier, users will concentrate on a few proven platforms; price increases and advertising rebuild should drive margin expansion.
Choi Ho Vice President 38:39
Robinhood tied to Bitcoin, wait for recovery.
Robinhood missed earnings as monthly active users and deposits fell, and its stock is now highly correlated with Bitcoin; it needs a crypto market recovery and renewed customer and deposit growth, so the setup is one to watch rather than chase.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 61:07
APR earnings strong but multiple stagnant.
APR delivered strong earnings but its multiple has not expanded because the broader beauty and device sector de-rated; the stock needs an industry re-rating to resume its uptrend.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 66:48
Korean domestic demand stocks attractive this year.
A strong stock market can lead GDP through wealth effects and domestic consumption, and Korean domestic demand stocks are undervalued value plays that could re-rate as consumer momentum and government policy support turnarounds.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 67:25
Shinsegae inbound tourism drives margin re-rating.
Shinsegae is an inbound tourism leader with department-store sales and margins recovering, duty-free losses narrowing, and PBR re-rating potential; despite the recent rally, the report sees a 420,000 won target as overseas peer valuations and asset development support further upside.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 79:58
Samsung Electro-Mechanics MLCC and FC-BGA growth.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics should benefit from server MLCC mix improvement, stable-to-rising ASPs, full utilization, and structural FC-BGA growth with new customers and potential Nvidia supply; package solution earnings are turning around, and the stock trades at a discount to Ibiden, supporting a 300,000 won target.
Wang Jeong Department Head 89:12
Xiaomi margins squeezed, wait for memory easing.
Xiaomi faces weaker Q4 revenue and smartphone gross margins from rising memory costs, while EV growth is solid and IoT weak; the analyst cut the target price but still sees upside, and the speakers advise waiting for memory price pressure to ease.
Wang Jeong Department Head 92:58
Apple gains share from memory cost inflation.
Memory price inflation is pressuring Chinese Android smartphone makers, which should allow Apple to gain market share and improve hardware and software margins.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 96:11
Samsung Epis Holdings MSCI inclusion, good value.
Samsung Epis Holdings is a good long-term value at current levels, with MSCI inclusion providing a supply catalyst; investors should compare it with peers like Celltrion, while short-term traders should note that post-inclusion supply events can fade.
Up Next

This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published February 11, 2026, features Seo Hyeong, Jun Yeok Joo-im, Choi Ho, Oh Woo-seok, Park Se-ik, Wang Jeong discussing MU, TSM, ORCL, ALAB, MAR, BTC, STRATEGY, SPOT, HOOD, 278470.KS, Korean domestic demand stocks, 004170.KS, 009150.KS, 1810.HK, AAPL, Samsung Epis Holdings. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Seo Hyeong, Jun Yeok Joo-im, Choi Ho, Oh Woo-seok, Park Se-ik, Wang Jeong  · Tickers: MU, TSM, ORCL, ALAB, MAR, BTC, STRATEGY, SPOT, HOOD, 278470.KS, Korean domestic demand stocks, 004170.KS, 009150.KS, 1810.HK, AAPL, Samsung Epis Holdings