War is more likely"... Middle East Risk on the Verge of Explosion | Park Hyundo, Sung Ilkwang, Sogang University Euro-MENA Institute Professors [Global Interview]

Summary

Two professors analyze the escalating US-Iran tensions, the breakdown in nuclear negotiations, and the high probability of military conflict. They discuss the roles of China and Russia, the implications for oil prices, and the lack of a clear off-ramp for the crisis. The geopolitical risk is rising sharply with no near-term resolution in sight.

• Professors Park Hyundo and Sung Ilkwang assess the likelihood of war between the US and Iran as high.
• Negotiations have stalled as both sides reject each other's preconditions.
• Israel is prepared to strike Iran and is waiting for US approval.
• China and Russia are siding with Iran, complicating any diplomatic solution.
• Oil prices are expected to remain elevated due to the conflict.
• The US administration appears willing to tolerate higher oil prices temporarily.
• Key events this week include Putin's visit to Beijing and a White House security meeting.
• The professors expect a US decision on military action within days.