The Metric Taking Over Earning Season

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  April 30, 2026 at 20:19  |  4:50  |  Morgan Stanley
Speakers
Andrew Sheets — Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Summary

Andrew Sheets discusses the rising importance of capital expenditure on AI infrastructure during earnings season. He highlights the scale and acceleration of spending by large US tech companies, its support for semiconductor stocks, and the credit market implications. He suggests mortgage-backed securities offer better near-term risk-reward than corporate credit.

  • Capex on AI infrastructure is soaring, estimated at $600 billion in 2026 and potentially $1 trillion by 2028.
  • US tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are at the leading edge of this spending.
  • Semiconductor stocks have risen over 30% in the month, tied to the AI buildout.
  • Record bond issuance is expected from US tech companies borrowing to fund capex.
  • Rising capex supports equities but is a credit negative due to increased borrowing.
  • Near-term risk-reward is better in mortgage-backed securities than corporate credit.
  • Large investment could boost productivity, lower inflation, and influence Fed policy.
Trade Ideas
Andrew Sheets Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, Morgan Stanley 2:31
AI capex supports semiconductor stocks.
The historic buildout of AI infrastructure, driven by massive capital spending from large US tech companies, is directly supporting semiconductor stocks, which have already risen over 30% this month. This spending is accelerating and expected to continue, providing ongoing revenue for suppliers like semiconductors.
SMH MED
Andrew Sheets Chief Cross-Asset Strategist, Morgan Stanley 3:43
Prefer MBS over credit near term.
The dilemma of rising capital spending by tech companies supports equities but requires significant borrowing, which is a credit negative. In the near term, risk-reward is better in other parts of fixed income, specifically mortgage-backed securities, which are not directly exposed to this borrowing pressure.
mortgage-backed securities MED
Up Next
1:16
Trump Says He Is Lifting Some Scotch Tariffs
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 30
42:31
S&P Hits Records, Wayfair Earnings Miss | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 4/30/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 30
8:29
The World Is Repricing Risk — And Markets Aren’t Ready | General "Spider" Marks & Peter Tchir
Wealthion · Apr 30
1:05
Trump Says He Doesn't Care If Powell Stays on Fed Board
Bloomberg Markets · Apr 30
4:04
Hormuz's closure will not be felt evenly around the world, says Rochefort's Kyle Bass
CNBC · Apr 30

This Morgan Stanley video, published April 30, 2026, features Andrew Sheets discussing SMH, mortgage-backed securities. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Andrew Sheets  · Tickers: SMH, mortgage-backed securities