Next Mega Selloff Trigger Revealed, And It's Not What You Think | Marko Papic

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 01, 2026 at 22:30  |  29:04  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Marco Papic — Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group

Summary

Marko Papic discusses the fragility of the semiconductor supply chain, the Iran-US Hormuz situation, and his bullish near-term bias. He warns of a potential bearish setup for early 2027 driven by IPO lockup expirations, sticky inflation, and a slowing rate of AI capex growth. He recommends owning US energy, industrials, and commodities in a multipolar world while reducing overweight to US tech.

  • Semiconductor supply chain is vulnerable but China unlikely to invade Taiwan soon.
  • Hormuz blockade is permeable; oil inventories and pipelines keep markets stable.
  • Near-term bullish on risk assets, but 6-12 month horizon increasingly cautious.
  • Three risks for 2027: IPO lockup supply, sticky inflation removing Fed cuts, negative second derivative of AI capex.
  • Recommends long US energy sector due to competitiveness and low geopolitical risk.
  • Recommends long US industrials and commodities for multipolar world diversification.
  • US tech is best in world but unlikely to outperform over next 5 years.
  • Institutional portfolios are underweight non-US assets; gradual global diversification advised.
Trade Ideas
Marco Papic Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group 10:50
Bearish setup early 2027 supply
A confluence of factors—massive IPO lockup expirations (trillions in equity supply), stickier inflation removing Fed cuts, and a deeply negative second derivative of AI capex—will create a bearish setup for US equities in early 2027. This is not a near-term call but a 6-12 month horizon risk.
SPY MED
Marco Papic Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group 24:49
Long US industrials sector
A multipolar world with high nominal GDP growth means investors should own industrial sectors that benefit from physical buildout, infrastructure, and capex. Industrials are one of the few sectors that should outperform tech over the next 5 years.
XLI MED
Marco Papic Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group 24:49
Long commodities multipolar world
Commodities are a key beneficiary of the multipolar world and high nominal GDP growth environment. Investors should own broad commodities as a way to diversify away from tech and capture real-asset demand.
DBC MED
Marco Papic Chief Strategist, Clocktower Group 26:31
Long US energy sector
US energy companies are highly competitive, drill domestically, and have almost no geopolitical risk. In a multipolar world with high nominal GDP growth, energy stands out as a comparative advantage for America and should be added to portfolios.
XLE MED
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This The David Lin Report video, published June 01, 2026, features Marco Papic discussing SPY, XLI, DBC, XLE. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Marco Papic  · Tickers: SPY, XLI, DBC, XLE