Marco Papic 1.1 2 ideas

Brent crude is at ~$110, up significantly since the Iran conflict began. Papic assigns a 50% probability to a "new kinetic equilibrium" where war continues but oil keeps flowing. Oil prices are the primary transmission mechanism of the conflict to the global economy, impacting inflation, consumer sentiment, and growth. The path of prices is highly dependent on unpredictable geopolitical developments. Oil is the central asset to monitor for market direction; its price is directly tied to the conflict's escalation/de-escalation. A swift diplomatic de-escalation or a resolution that reopens the Strait of Hormuz fully could cause prices to fall rapidly.

"I do think that with China in particular, there is going to be a big bank deal this year that may include a currency component, which will put more downward pressure on the dollar." The administration is struggling with affordability and trade deficits. A negotiated deal to weaken the USD (and strengthen CNY) combined with a predicted reduction in tariffs (from 14.2% to 10%) removes structural support for a strong dollar. SHORT. Policy shifts favor a weaker greenback to aid exports and reduce inflation. Global instability driving a "flight to safety" into the Dollar, or the Fed keeping rates higher for longer.