Trump Touts Strikes on Iran | Balance of Power: Early Edition 3/11/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Crude oil prices are surging (WTI up 4.3% to $86.93, Brent up 4.6%) as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) is releasing a historic 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to combat the massive supply gap.
- The US military has heavily depleted its munitions over a 12-day bombing campaign in Iran, setting the stage for a massive congressional supplemental funding request to restock the Department of Defense.
- Market volatility remains elevated (VIX holding around 24) amid unverified reports that Iran may attempt retaliatory drone strikes on the US West Coast.
- Shares of Papa John's International spiked 18.8% following reports of takeover interest from a Qatari-based investment fund.
Trade Ideas
The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut. Millions of barrels per day the market is not receiving and can't supplement that quickly. Even with the IEA releasing a historic 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, it is a temporary fix that cannot fully replace the structural daily deficit of a closed Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical risk premium and severe supply shock will keep crude prices elevated, directly padding the profit margins of major US oil producers who do not rely on Middle Eastern transit routes. LONG large-cap domestic oil producers who benefit from higher sustained global crude prices. A sudden ceasefire, de-escalation, or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would cause a rapid collapse in the geopolitical risk premium, bringing oil prices down sharply.
Shares rallying after a report the pizza chain is drawing fresh interest in takeover interest from a Qatari-based investment fund. Papa John's International (PZZA) spiked nearly 19% on takeover rumors. M&A arbitrageurs will be watching closely to see if a formal bid materializes at a premium to the current elevated price, or if the rumor fails to materialize into a concrete deal. WATCH the stock for formal acquisition offers, potential bidding wars, or a collapse of the talks. The Qatari fund walks away without making a formal offer, causing the stock to gap down and lose its entire rumor-driven premium.
They are going to be put to answering the question here, on replenishing what's being used in a really substantial way. One of the largest actions we've taken since actually Barack Obama's first year in office, and so this will be a large funding request. The US military has expended a massive amount of munitions, including Tomahawk missiles, during the intense bombing campaign in Iran. Congress will be forced to pass a massive supplemental funding bill to restock the Department of Defense's depleted inventories. This capital will flow directly into the order backlogs of prime defense and aerospace contractors. LONG prime defense contractors that manufacture missiles, drones, and heavy munitions for the US military. Partisan gridlock in Congress over border security or the broader budget could delay or reduce the size of the supplemental defense funding package.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 11, 2026, features Kailey Leinz, Charlie Pellett, Patrick McHenry discussing XOM, CVX, PZZA, GD, RTX, LMT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Kailey Leinz, Charlie Pellett, Patrick McHenry · Tickers: XOM, CVX, PZZA, GD, RTX, LMT