What to Make of Iran Protests and Potential US Involvement?

Summary

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment discusses the Iranian protests as an existential moment for the regime and a credibility test for the United States. He says Iranians would broadly welcome help restoring internet and communications connectivity, potentially including cyber or kinetic action against jamming, but views on broader US support vary. He notes thousands of Starlink terminals are helping some Iranians communicate despite a blackout, while evacuation warnings could create panic similar to last June's 12-day war. No specific market or investment recommendations are made.

• Karim Sadjadpour says Iran's regime faces an existential crisis as protests continue and security forces kill demonstrators.
• He says President Trump has repeatedly threatened action, putting US credibility at risk if Iran keeps killing protesters.
• He argues the minimum widely welcomed US help would be restoring connectivity, possibly via cyber or kinetic strikes on jamming equipment.
• He says protesters may welcome US support as a defensive shield, though views on deeper involvement differ.
• He notes internet, satellite, and cellular communications are throttled, with connectivity near zero and thousands of Starlink terminals inside Iran.
• He says organized protest communication is difficult, but millions taking to the streets is significant given personal risk.
• He warns Trump's calls for evacuation could cause panic and chaos, recalling the June 12-day war and military rule in Tehran.
• No direct investment ideas or market-specific trades are discussed.