Will Hezbollah and Houthi Rebels Join to Help Iran? This Is the Trigger for Middle East War Escalation / Will Iran Block the Strait of Hormuz? | Professor Park Hyun-do, Sogang University Euro-MENA Research Institute

Summary

Professor Park Hyun-do explains how the collapse of Iran's Shia Crescent corridor, particularly after Syria's alignment shift, has weakened Iran's ability to support Hezbollah and other proxies. The interview assesses whether Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, or the Houthis could join a wider conflict, while noting that Iraq's political direction and internal Iranian discontent constrain Tehran. The main market implication is that a broader US-Iran/Israel war could lead to regional missile attacks, including on oil facilities, raising the risk of an oil-price spike and global economic disruption.

• Syria's shift away from Iran has critically weakened the Shia Crescent supply route to Hezbollah.
• Iranian public frustration over spending on proxies is rising, but protests alone are unlikely to collapse the regime.
• Hezbollah is geographically constrained; Iraq-based pro-Iran militias and the Houthis are more likely to act in a wider war.
• Iraqi politics, especially a possible pro-Iran prime minister, could loosen constraints on Iran-backed militias.
• Houthi attacks on shipping are currently quiet, though hit-and-run actions remain possible under US deterrence.
• Israel fears Iranian ballistic missile retaliation and is expanding air defenses, but a full barrage may overwhelm them.
• A US-Israel preemptive strike on Iran risks a regional war and potential strikes on oil facilities.
• The key market risk discussed is an oil-price spike and global economic disruption if the conflict escalates.