Stock price surges and crashes will repeat in the future… Actions individuals must never take: 'Your account will melt' / Will OpenAI's listing be a high point signal for the AI rally? 'Wall Street is nervous' | Shinyoung Securities Dr. Kim Hyo-jin

Stock price surges and crashes will repeat in the future… Actions individuals must never take: "Your account will melt" / Will OpenAI's listing be a high point signal for the AI rally? "Wall Street is nervous" | Shinhan Securities Dr. Kim Hyo-jin
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 23, 2026 at 08:00  |  27:36  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Kim Hyojin — PhD, Shinyoung Securities

Summary

Kim Hyo-jin, Research Fellow at Shinyoung Securities, discusses the sustainability of AI capex and argues that AI industry optimism should be separated from AI stock rally risk. She highlights emerging differentiation among big-tech hyperscalers, Korean semiconductor and non-semiconductor export strengths, and sees OpenAI's future IPO as a possible late-cycle signal for US equities. She also expects USD/KRW to range near 1,400 and reads gold's rebound as diversification away from US Treasuries, while advising investors to extend their time horizon in volatile markets.

  • AI industry growth is real but should be separated from AI stock rally risk.
  • Hyperscaler AI capex spending is driving differentiation among Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
  • SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are benefiting from AI memory demand and using long-term contracts to defend margins.
  • Korea's diversified export base and vertical integration remain competitive beyond semiconductors.
  • Cosmetics, biotech, and shipbuilding are emerging as secondary Korean growth sectors.
  • OpenAI's future IPO is viewed as a possible late-cycle US equity market signal.
  • USD/KRW is expected to fluctuate around 1,400 after temporary repatriation flows.
  • Gold's rebound is seen as rotation away from US Treasuries, supported by central-bank buying.
Ideas
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 1:17
Separate AI industry from AI stock rally.
The AI industry's transformative growth should be separated from the AI stock rally. Even if big tech will be spending much more in five to ten years, equity investors now have to watch the acceleration of capex and whether profits justify it; the stock rally can break even if the industry remains strong.
AI equities MED
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 2:14
Big-tech capex divergence favors Microsoft, Google.
Within the M7/hyperscaler group, AI capex is causing differentiation: Meta is spending about $1.1 on capex for every $1 earned and looks burdensome, Amazon's cash position raises questions, while Microsoft and Google appear relatively more balanced; investors should now disaggregate the group rather than treat it as one trade.
META HIGH
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 2:14
Big-tech capex divergence favors Microsoft, Google.
Within the M7/hyperscaler group, AI capex is causing differentiation: Meta is spending about $1.1 on capex for every $1 earned and looks burdensome, Amazon's cash position raises questions, while Microsoft and Google appear relatively more balanced; investors should now disaggregate the group rather than treat it as one trade.
AMZN HIGH
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 2:14
Big-tech capex divergence favors Microsoft, Google.
Within the M7/hyperscaler group, AI capex is causing differentiation: Meta is spending about $1.1 on capex for every $1 earned and looks burdensome, Amazon's cash position raises questions, while Microsoft and Google appear relatively more balanced; investors should now disaggregate the group rather than treat it as one trade.
MSFT GOOGL HIGH
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 5:47
SK Hynix earns exceptional AI memory margins.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are changing their customer contracts toward long-term binding agreements to defend margins during inevitable memory downcycles; combined with shareholder-return efforts, this may make them more investable for foreign long-term holders even when the cycle cools.
000660.KS 005930.KS HIGH
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 9:49
Korea's vertical-integrated export economy remains strong.
Korea's vertically integrated industrial base and diversified export mix across semiconductors, shipbuilding, defense, power, batteries, autos, cosmetics, food, and K-culture make it a uniquely useful compressed global economy; after peak-Korea worries, the country is broadly well positioned, and Wall Street follows Korean exports as a leading global indicator.
EWY MED
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 14:26
Korean cosmetics, biotech, shipbuilding are growing.
Beyond semiconductors, Korean export data shows cosmetics and biotech have been steadily improving since last year, and shipbuilding orders have recently been good; they are too small to fully replace semiconductors if semis rest, but they are real secondary candidates.
Korean cosmetics Korean Biotech Korean Shipbuilding MED
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 16:30
OpenAI IPO may mark market top.
OpenAI's eventual IPO concerns him for the entire market because a mega-IPO can be a late-cycle signal; Anthropic's expected October listing adds further supply risk, and Nvidia and Microsoft are already heavily tied to OpenAI, so the event deserves serious monitoring as a potential market-high signal.
SPY NASDAQ Composite MED
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 19:16
USD/KRW likely stays near 1,400.
The won's sharp fall from 1,550 to the 1,380s was driven by temporary repatriation flows such as corporate taxes and SK Hynix AD listing proceeds, not a fundamental break; Korea has large foreign assets and strong export earnings, so USD/KRW is likely to fluctuate around the 1,400 level rather than fall much further.
USD/KRW MED
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 23:08
Gold rises as US Treasuries lose trust.
Gold's rebound reflects ongoing diversification away from US Treasuries because even long-term Treasury ETFs suffered extreme drawdowns and trust in US government bonds has been damaged; the Bank of Korea and other central banks are buying gold, and gold has risen even as Treasury yields rose, confirming this safe-haven rotation.
TLT HIGH
Kim Hyojin PhD, Shinyoung Securities 23:08
Gold rises as US Treasuries lose trust.
Gold's rebound reflects ongoing diversification away from US Treasuries because even long-term Treasury ETFs suffered extreme drawdowns and trust in US government bonds has been damaged; the Bank of Korea and other central banks are buying gold, and gold has risen even as Treasury yields rose, confirming this safe-haven rotation.
GLD HIGH
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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published August 23, 2026, features Kim Hyojin discussing AI equities, META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, EWY, Korean cosmetics, Korean Biotech, Korean Shipbuilding, SPY, NASDAQ Composite, USD/KRW, TLT, GLD. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Hyojin  · Tickers: AI equities, META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, EWY, Korean cosmetics, Korean Biotech, Korean Shipbuilding, SPY, NASDAQ Composite, USD/KRW, TLT, GLD