Market Crash In 2026? Chief Economist Reveals A New 3-Year Cycle | Anna Wong
Speakers
Anna Wong
— Bloomberg Chief US Economist
Summary
Anna Wong argues the US economy is booming with the V-shaped recovery intact, driven by AI capex and fiscal tailwinds. She believes the AI capex cycle has another 1-2 years of growth, citing strong earnings from Google and Intel. Inflation may peak in May, and the Fed is unlikely to hike aggressively. The defense budget will provide additional fiscal support after September.
- Anna Wong reiterates her V-shaped economic recovery call for 2026.
- Q2 GDP tracker at 4.3% despite surging gasoline prices.
- AI capex cycle is in early stages with 1-2 years of growth remaining.
- Google AI products grew 800% with margins increasing despite capex.
- Intel CPU orders are full, indicating strong demand.
- Inflation likely peaked in May and will disinflate.
- Fed is not expected to hike aggressively; market pricing is tepid.
- Defense budget increase will add a 0.6 percentage point growth impulse after September.
Trade Ideas
AI capex cycle has 1-2 years left
The AI capex cycle is in its early stages with at least another one to two years of growth, supported by strong demand that outpaces supply, as evidenced by Google's AI product revenue growing 800% and margins increasing, and Intel's CPU orders being full. This is not a bubble because the market is differentiating between successful and overinvesting hyperscalers.
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