Venezuela saw leadership change, not regime change: CFR's Haass

Summary

Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations discusses U.S. military action in Venezuela, arguing it produced leadership change rather than regime change. He outlines uncertainty over whether Venezuela's successor leadership will align with the Trump administration on energy access, U.S. company participation, drug trafficking, and Cuba. Haass also assesses regional nervousness and says the Venezuela shock has little near-term oil impact given low output and ample global supply, while Iran is the more significant oil risk.

• U.S. action in Venezuela removed Maduro but Haass calls it leadership change, not regime change.
• The key question is whether Venezuela's successor leadership aligns with the Trump administration.
• Possible areas of alignment include U.S. energy access, American company participation, drug trafficking, and Cuba.
• Much of the hemisphere is wary of U.S. intervention, with Cuba, Mexico, Canada, Greenland, and Colombia nervous.
• Venezuela produces less than 1% of global oil output, so Haass sees little near-term oil-market impact.
• Haass says global oil supplies have ample surplus.
• Iran is a more significant oil risk due to 3M+ bpd production and ~2M bpd exports, especially for China.
• Haass says Iran's regime has been resilient and it is premature to predict regime change.