Steve Sosnick: The Macro Read — Bonds, the Fed, Equities, and Where Crypto Fits

Summary

Steve Sosnick discusses the macro landscape including bond market signals, the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, global equity trends, and crypto's place. He highlights the ratchet effect from Persian Gulf news, vulnerabilities in the AI-driven rally, and a cautious outlook on equities given midterm election patterns and lack of risk aversion.

• Sosnick notes the stock market's ratchet-like reaction to positive Strait of Hormuz news.
• He warns that AI spending could be cut if big tech pulls back, similar to dot-com bubble dynamics.
• Kevin Warsh's hawkish history and the FOMC's divided stance present uncertainty for rate policy.
• Crypto has become dull compared to tech stocks and faces competition for speculative capital.
• The D-RAM ETF (Roundhill Memory) saw massive inflows, surpassing crypto ETF flows.
• Sosnick is concerned about record margin debt and lack of risk aversion in current markets.
• Midterm election years have historically been down for equities, and 2026 could repeat.