The Real Reason Trump Meets Kim Jong Un Again... Korea Could Be Most Dangerous | Cho Han-bum, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Institute for National Unification

Summary

Cho Han-bum, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, discusses Trump's renewed outreach to Kim Jong-un and the evolving US-North Korea-South Korea triangle. He argues Trump is driven largely by personal political interests, may pursue a small deal that freezes North Korean nuclear development while implicitly recognizing its existing arsenal, and could push a peace treaty that creates major risks for South Korea. He also outlines South Korea's strategic leverage in semiconductors and shipbuilding and stresses that Korea must secure defense capabilities such as nuclear-powered submarines and nuclear fuel-cycle rights.

• Trump's abrupt halt of the combined Freedom Shield exercise on its start day is unprecedented and reflects personal decision-making risk.
• Trump's claim that Kim has seven very strong nuclear weapons is not credible; estimates range roughly 60-120 warheads.
• Cho sees a high probability of a small deal: North Korea freezes further nuclear development while keeping existing weapons.
• A possible armistice-to-peace-treaty move could turn the MDL into a border and force state-to-state relations with North Korea.
• Kim Jong-un has incentives to meet Trump because he can gain global spotlight, de facto nuclear status, and political legitimacy.
• South Korea should negotiate from strength using Samsung, SK Hynix, and shipbuilding as strategic leverage.
• Cho argues South Korea must secure nuclear-powered submarines and enrichment/reprocessing rights.
• Hormuz won't stay blocked permanently; negotiations and normalization are likely despite a long Iran conflict.