Housing not in crisis but first-time buyers are being squeezed: Serhant Real Estate's Ryan Serhant
Summary
- The US housing market is not in a "crisis" (distress/crash) but rather a "stalemate" defined by low volume and high equity.
- Existing homeowners are financially healthy but "stuck" due to the lock-in effect of low mortgage rates, reducing mobility significantly (moving every 9 years vs. historically more frequent).
- First-time buyers are the primary victims, squeezed by high prices and rates, effectively locking them out of the "American Dream" of ownership.
- The only solution to the stalemate is a massive increase in housing supply, as policy currently rewards scarcity.
Trade Ideas
Ryan Serhant
Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate
"January sales... dropped 8.4% from December... Homeowners now move once every nearly nine years." Companies like Zillow or brokerages depend on *transaction volume*, not just asset prices. A "stalemate" with an 8.4% drop in sales volume directly correlates to a drop in revenue for listing platforms and agents. High equity helps the homeowner, not the broker. AVOID. The "mobility crisis" is a revenue crisis for transaction-based models. A sudden drop in interest rates could unlock inventory and spike transaction volume unexpectedly.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published February 12, 2026, features Ryan Serhant discussing Z. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Ryan Serhant · Tickers: Z