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Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 25, 2026 at 11:29  |  2:59:25  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Clare Pleydell-Bouverie — Co-Head of Global Innovation, Liontrust Asset Management
So Hyeon-cheol — Adjunct Professor, Sangji University
Im Gamdok — Analyst

Summary

Panel discussion covering US refining stocks on surging crack spreads, KOSPI buying at oversold levels, SK Telecom's AI data center re-rating, and Korean shipbuilders' defense momentum, along with geopolitical analysis of Iran-US tensions.

  • US refining margin (321 crack spread) surges due to supply disruptions, benefiting Valero and Marathon Petroleum.
  • KOSPI is oversold with bottom near 6,450; Burgeon actively buying KODEX 200 and KOSDAQ 150 ETFs.
  • SK Telecom's 15GW AI data center project may re-rate the stock from telecom to AI infrastructure valuation.
  • Korean shipbuilders to benefit from US naval cooperation and Saudi submarine deal, with attractive forward valuations.
  • Geopolitical tension between Iran and US likely limited, but oil price volatility persists.
  • Weekly top gainers analysis shows sector leader effect; contest picks among panelists.
  • Broad rotation from expensive tech to energy, defense, and select Korean industrials.
Ideas
US refiners benefit from elevated crack spreads
The 321 crack spread has surged to new highs due to geopolitical disruptions (Ukraine drone attacks on Russian refineries, Middle East supply issues) and strong seasonal demand shifting to US refiners. US gasoline inventories are at 5-year lows and diesel margins are spiking. Valero (VLO) has higher sensitivity to refining margins (89% of EBIT from refining), making it a leveraged play on elevated crack spreads. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has a more balanced mix with midstream (53% of EBIT), offering downside protection if margins turn. Both benefit from the current environment, but Valero offers stronger upside while Marathon is a more defensive alternative.
Buy KOSPI at oversold levels
KOSPI is oversold with PBR below 2x and the index breaking below the 5-month moving average, but bottoming around 6,450 based on earnings-based band calculations. Earnings remain intact and no recession is expected. Historically, after such drawdowns the market rebounds within 1-6 months. He is actively buying KOSPI via KODEX 200 ETF and KOSDAQ 150 ETF, expecting a recovery toward 7,800-8,000.
SK Telecom re-rating as AI data center play
SK Telecom is spearheading a 15GW AI data center mega-project through its subsidiary SK Hyper, integrating group assets (SK Hynix HBM, SK Ecoplant fuel cells, SK Telecom cloud) into a full-stack AI infrastructure provider. This transformation could re-rate the stock from a telecom multiple (8-10x P/E) to an AI infra multiple (20-25x P/E), offering 50-100% upside to target prices of 200,000 KRW. The company's strong cash flow provides downside support, and catalysts include first data center operation in H2 2026 and 5GW scale by 2029.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 170:40
Korean shipbuilders leverage naval demand
US-Korea naval cooperation (new Washington office, cooperation agreement) and a potential large submarine order from Saudi Arabia create a new military shipbuilding cycle for Korean shipyards. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, and Samsung Heavy Industries are attractively valued on forward basis (PER ~13-14, ROE >20%), and military ship momentum adds to existing strong orderbooks. These stocks are recommended as beneficiaries of defense spending and tight shipyard capacity.
Up Next

This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published July 25, 2026, features Clare Pleydell-Bouverie, Burgeon, So Hyeon-cheol discussing MPC, VLO, 069500.KS, 291450.KS, 017670.KS, 042660.KS, 329180.KS, 010140.KS. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Clare Pleydell-Bouverie, Burgeon, So Hyeon-cheol  · Tickers: MPC, VLO, 069500.KS, 291450.KS, 017670.KS, 042660.KS, 329180.KS, 010140.KS