Bitcoin’s Future Will Be Decided by This One Shift
Speakers
Jordi Visser
— Macro Strategist / ex-CIO, Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers
Anthony Pompliano
— Chairman & CEO, Pro Cap Financial
Summary
Jordi Visser argues bitcoin's selloff is tied to its correlation with software and hedge-fund hedging of illiquid private tech, not a breakdown in long-term crypto utility. He expects software multiples to compress as AI disrupts legacy SaaS, while AI capex and PMI recovery favor hardware, commodities, energy, small caps, and AI-native software like Palantir. The discussion also covers Tesla, Musk's robotics/edge-AI vision, and a turbulence model warning of S&P downside and higher VIX.
- Bitcoin is selling off alongside software as institutions hedge illiquid private tech exposure.
- Stablecoin volumes and AI agents are driving crypto utility, with tokenization as a catalyst.
- AI-native software should beat legacy SaaS; Palantir is favored while Salesforce and Adobe are pressured.
- Hyperscaler capex and PMI recovery favor semiconductors, hardware, commodities, energy, and small caps.
- Mag 7 may underperform as capex creates liabilities and multiples compress.
- Tesla is framed as an asymmetric Musk/robotics/edge-AI bet.
- A turbulence model warns of S&P 500 downside and higher VIX.
Ideas
Hedge-driven selloff, buying dips.
Bitcoin's selloff is largely a correlation and hedging phenomenon: institutions with illiquid private software/VC exposure may short liquid bitcoin as a cap-structure hedge, and mega-cap tech has competed for returns. The long-term crypto utility case is intact because stablecoin volumes are exploding, AI agents create network effects, tokenization and the Clarity Act are catalysts, and capitulation-style pessimism often marks a bottom. He has been buying dips near/under $100k and after reclaiming $92k, and would view bitcoin bouncing while IGV stays weak as evidence that hedges are unwinding.
Stablecoin growth benefits Ethereum.
Stablecoin transaction volumes are already huge and rising, and AI agents plus tokenization/regulatory clarity should strengthen crypto network effects. If investors want exposure to that stablecoin/tokenization growth, he says he would go to Ethereum.
Software multiples must compress.
SaaS/software is directly at odds with AI; AI-native agents and buyers undermine legacy software growth tied to nominal GDP. Software multiples had a huge bubble and must rerate lower; IGV and bitcoin were both down about 24% YTD, and he does not expect a significant software bounce.
Buying Palantir on AI-native growth.
He is buying Palantir this week because the stock finally reached a justifiable level and its commercial/enterprise revenues are soaring over 100% year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Clients are replacing entire software stacks, and Palantir is an AI-native winner/defense/analytics name that should diverge from zombie legacy software.
Short legacy enterprise software.
Salesforce and Adobe are old-school enterprise software priced as growth companies but poorly positioned against AI: Agentforce has not worked yet, Adobe can be partly replaced by Gemini/Nano Banana, and future AI-native buyers will not need the old stack. He explicitly says to be long Palantir and short these old-school software names.
Commodity rotation from AI capex.
The macro rotation into physical/commodity assets is confirmed by PMI above 50 and AI capex flowing into energy, silver, cooling systems, and other physical inputs. The recipients of that spending should outperform.
Energy outperforms in capex rotation.
PMI above 50 and AI capex spending on power/energy support energy stocks; energy is already up 16% YTD while tech is down, and Mag 7/hyperscaler spending flows to energy suppliers. He says energy is working.
AI capex favors hardware.
Hyperscaler capex is $650B and is all for hardware—semiconductors, power, data centers—while AI agents require ever more compute and Microsoft/Oracle RPOs show unfulfilled demand. Physical hardware has moats and should outperform software; anyone fading hardware is misreading real spending.
Cyber, Snowflake sold unfairly.
Cyber companies and data/AI software such as Snowflake are being thrown out with the broader software bathwater, even though they are better positioned than legacy enterprise software. He recommends looking for that divergence.
Microsoft AI monetization doubts.
Microsoft is spending vast amounts and carrying large RPO liabilities, but Copilot adoption is weak in his own experience and monetization may lag; if Microsoft cannot execute AI, other enterprise software names are worse off. At minimum its multiple should compress.
Model warns S&P decline, VIX up.
His turbulence model, which flags correlation/volatility breaks above the 50-day moving average, signaled a market warning. If correct, the S&P 500 should fall about 5% and VIX should rise; VIX has already moved higher and the S&P broke below its 50-day, though the full decline has not happened.
Model warns S&P decline, VIX up.
His turbulence model, which flags correlation/volatility breaks above the 50-day moving average, signaled a market warning. If correct, the S&P 500 should fall about 5% and VIX should rise; VIX has already moved higher and the S&P broke below its 50-day, though the full decline has not happened.
Mag 7 to underperform S&P.
All Mag 7 stocks face relative trouble versus the S&P because they are spending enormous capex on energy, silver, cooling, and infrastructure, creating liabilities and RPOs while becoming more like commodity companies. They may not get revenues fast enough and their multiples should come down; the market is transitioning from concentration to deconcentration.
Small caps working in rotation.
The rotation away from concentration, with PMI above 50 and leadership broadening into hardware, commodities, and energy, is why small caps are working. They should benefit as the market deconcentrates.
Asymmetric bet on Musk labor force.
He publicly bought Tesla shares and may buy more despite the drawdown. The asymmetric venture-like bet is that Musk controls the future labor force through the most transportation vehicles and humanoids, which could make Tesla a $10T+ company; downside might be around 50%, not zero.
AI capex spending supports silver.
Mag 7/hyperscaler capex must spend on silver as a physical input, and the people receiving that spending should win. This makes silver a beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.
Tesla best large-cap on robotics.
Tesla should eventually separate from the Mag 7 and be the best-performing large-cap stock this year. It has already built scale and is moving into robotics/hardware, decentralized edge AI, humanoids, and robotaxis; the market will front-load that TAM into a narrative/Bitcoin-like valuation, with risk along the path.
Up Next
This Anthony Pompliano video, published February 07, 2026, features Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano discussing BTC, ETH, IGV, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, DBC, XLE, SMH, SNOW, CIBR, MSFT, SPY, VIX, MAGS, IWM, TSLA, SILVER. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jordi Visser, Anthony Pompliano · Tickers: BTC, ETH, IGV, PLTR, CRM, ADBE, DBC, XLE, SMH, SNOW, CIBR, MSFT, SPY, VIX, MAGS, IWM, TSLA, SILVER