O QUE TODO INVESTIDOR PRECISA ENTENDER SOBRE GALPÕES LOGÍSTICOS

Summary

Fernando Crestana explains the dynamics of the Brazilian logistics warehouse market, highlighting persistently low vacancy rates due to strong demand from e-commerce players and significant supply-side bottlenecks including terrain, regulation, and funding constraints. He details the economics of development (yield-on-cost) and the role of FIIs as the main buyers. The discussion suggests the market has a long runway before reaching equilibrium.

• Vacancy rates for logistics warehouses in Brazil have dropped from 25% to 8% and are expected to stay in the 8-12% range.
• E-commerce companies like Mercado Livre, Amazon, and Shopee are driving strong demand for last-mile warehousing.
• Supply is constrained by difficult terrain (e.g., Cajamar), lengthy approvals (CETESB), and high cost of earthmoving.
• Developers target a yield-on-cost of 12%, which requires rents of R$30-32/m² in top markets.
• FIIs are the primary buyers of completed assets, but high Selic rates have closed the equity market for new fund raises.
• International players like GLP and Prologis are slowing investments in Brazil due to capital dynamics.
• A single-asset fund for Mercado Livre in Cajamar raised nearly R$800 million using a senior/subordinated structure.
• The market is expected to converge toward a structural vacancy of 10-12% only over the medium to long term.