Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)

Summary

Doug Olaflin and Dylan Patel discuss the recent drawdown in AI and semiconductor stocks, focusing on Korea and SK Hynix, while comparing to historic bubbles. They analyze the memory cycle's strength, debate long-term AI demand, and explore supply-side constraints like electrician shortages and debt markets. Political and geopolitical risks, including Chinese memory entry and potential US regulation, are also examined.

• SK Hynix missed earnings due to LTA shift, but memory cycle remains robust.
• Recent drawdown driven by leverage and margin calls, akin to past Asian bubbles.
• Doug sees the memory upcycle as stronger and longer than historical ones.
• Dylan argues AI demand will keep growing as models improve and user base expands.
• Supply constraints (electricians, capital) could slow AI buildout.
• Potential government intervention and Chinese memory could impact GPU markets.
• Data center construction creates broad economic participation, but faces NIMBY sentiment.