Semiconductor strength continues, but here's why you need to be cautious now

Summary

Park Byeong-chang, CEO of MP Partners, reviews global and Korean markets with a focus on semiconductors. While semiconductor stocks continue to rally, he warns that rising US rate expectations and a visible memory cycle peak in 2028 may cap further gains. He highlights Korean front-end semiconductor equipment stocks as a bright spot but advises caution on broad indices and memory leaders. He also discusses a potential head-and-shoulders top in the S&P 500 and a tactical bounce opportunity in SpaceX via a leveraged product.

• Global semiconductor stocks rally sharply while big-tech hyperscalers fall, creating divergence tied to US rate-hike fears.
• BofA now forecasts three Fed rate hikes in 2025, pushing 10-year yields higher and threatening AI capex.
• Korean front-end semiconductor equipment stocks dominate KOSDAQ strength, supported by AI investment and government growth policy.
• Memory chip cycle strong near-term but new supply from China in 2028 could trigger oversupply and price declines, potentially capping stock upside.
• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may face valuation compression as the market begins to discount the cycle end.
• S&P 500 chart shows a possible head-and-shoulders formation, warranting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
• SpaceX leveraged product nears a technical floor post-IPO selloff, setting up a potential bounce driven by institutional buying.
• Overall advice: avoid chasing momentum names, be selective, and raise caution heading into the second half.