Chesley Morning Brief — Mixed Close… Nasdaq Plummets on SpaceX Crash

[Chesley Morning Brief] Mixed Close…Nasdaq "Plummets" on SpaceX Crash [26/06/23]

Watch on YouTube ↗ | June 23, 2026 at 00:26 | 1:47:29 | Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)

Speakers

Wang — Section Chief

Yu Ri-pro — Analyst

Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Choi Ho — Vice President

Summary

Chesley Morning Brief covers China's semiconductor packaging opportunity (Jangjeon Tech), the US market split between AI spenders and beneficiaries, SpaceX's sharp decline and avoid thesis, MedUp's AI-driven ad-tech IPO, a strong memory price cycle call, SK Hynix overtaking Samsung and ADR re-rating, Korean defense sector rebound, and a macro thesis that Korea's income-driven revaluation favors semiconductors.

Wang details Jangjeon Tech, a Chinese semiconductor packaging firm with margin expansion and 20% upside.
Yu Ri-pro outlines AI capex beneficiaries: memory (Roundhill DRAM ETF, Micron, SK Hynix) and equipment rallying.
MedUp AI ad-tech IPO analyzed with discounted valuation and near-term upside but lock-up risk.
Park Se-ik recommends avoiding SpaceX due to unsustainable cash burn and overvaluation.
Park Se-ik highlights SK Hynix ADR listing as a catalyst for a multiple re-rating.
Choi Ho identifies Korean defense names (Hanwha Aerospace, LIG Nex1) as attractively valued after pullback.
A report argues Korea's GDI exceeding GDP signals semiconductor-led equity revaluation.
Narrow market breadth and rising rates discussed as creating selective opportunities.

Ideas

Wang Section Chief 4:22

Margin expansion and growth drive upside.

Jangjeon Tech is China's #2 semiconductor packaging and test company, with margins improving as advanced packaging (AI-related) share rises and utilization increases. Overseas revenue is 78% but margins are low, while domestic margin is higher; as domestic share grows, overall margin can expand. JP Morgan issued a buy with a target of 110 CNY, implying 20% upside, using 40x forward P/E vs current 63x trailing. The earnings CAGR is 47%, so the current 63x looks reasonable when projecting forward. The company is expanding capex aggressively, but the margin improvement story supports re-rating.

Yu Ri-pro Analyst 12:42

Memory and equipment benefit from AI capex.

AI infrastructure spending is splitting the market into cash-burning spenders (big tech, SpaceX) and cash-receiving beneficiaries (memory, storage, equipment, network, power). Memory stands out with a concentrated ETF play (Roundhill Memory DRAM ETF up 190% since April). Jefferies issued an aggressive memory price forecast: 40-50% QoQ in 3Q and 30-40% in 4Q. Micron earnings this week will confirm HBM demand and server guidance. SK Hynix US listing could open a direct route for US investors. Equipment names are making new highs. The market is rotating toward the receiving side of AI capex.

Yu Ri-pro Analyst 22:43

AI ad-tech IPO with strong upside.

MedUp is an AI-based digital marketing platform that automates ad operations through its self-developed 'Level Expert' engine, drastically reducing labor costs (80% of cost is personnel). The high-margin solution business is growing 121% YoY, driving operating leverage and a recent turn to profitability. IPO valuation is discounted (~11x P/E vs peers 24x), giving potential 60% upside. Institutional demand was strong (1400:1 competition), and the initial 30% free float is supportive. However, 14% of shares unlock after one month, making this a short-term trade. The company plans US expansion, adding a longer-term optionality.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 43:24

Expensive with uncertain cash returns.

SpaceX is burning massive capex with negative free cash flow until 2029 despite holding $100B in cash. The stock trades at 100x P/S, and the upcoming Nasdaq 100 inclusion event is unlikely to provide lasting support given the fundamental overvaluation. The 16% drop reflects the market's repricing of AI capex risk. It is better to reduce exposure, as event-driven trades on the inclusion are not compelling.

Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 78:28

Income-driven revaluation favors Korean semiconductors.

Korea's real GDI surged 13.2% YoY while real GDP grew only 3.8%, the widest gap since 1988. This income-led improvement is driven by semiconductor export price recovery and better trade terms, indicating a corporate earnings revaluation cycle, not a recession. The report recommends focusing on Korean semiconductors, where the cycle is price-driven rather than volume-driven, and using financials as a hedge. The current interest rate pressure is growth-positive, signaling revaluation of Korean equities.

Choi Ho Vice President 87:43

Defense stocks cheap with strong growth.

Korean defense stocks, particularly in short-range air defense, have pulled back on ceasefire narratives but the structural growth story is intact. European rearmament and US supply chain constraints create export opportunities. Hanwha Aerospace and LIG Nex1 have solid order backlogs, are key beneficiaries of Europe's push to 4% GDP defense spending, and now trade at much cheaper valuations. The pullback is a buying opportunity.

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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published June 23, 2026, features Wang, Yu Ri-pro, Park Se-ik, Choi Ho discussing Jangjeon Tech, Roundhill Memory DRAM ETF, MU, 000660.KS, MedUp, SPCX, Korean Semiconductors, 012450.KS, 079550.KS. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Wang, Yu Ri-pro, Park Se-ik, Choi Ho · Tickers: Jangjeon Tech, Roundhill Memory DRAM ETF, MU, 000660.KS, MedUp, SPCX, Korean Semiconductors, 012450.KS, 079550.KS