August Volatility Persists... Is Risk Peak-Out Passing? | Kim Jong-moon, Yeo Do-eun, Heo Jae-mu

Summary

The program discusses August volatility and the semiconductor-led selloff in Korean equities. Kim Jong-moon argues that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix shareholder return programs are powerful, that dividend tax reform should draw money into Korean stocks, and that a peak in US 10-year yields may trigger a rebound. He also presents HBM/DRAM demand data as evidence the memory supercycle remains intact.

• The KOSPI and KOSDAQ are falling again, led by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, while some financial, construction, and Doosan Enerbility names outperform.
• Kim Jong-moon argues that SK hynix and Samsung Electronics shareholder return programs are much stronger than the market is giving them credit for.
• He highlights Samsung Electronics' October dividend and year-end buyback/dividend as near-term income, especially for preferred shares.
• He says dividend income separate taxation can rotate bank and real estate money into Korean equities, using Taiwan's 2018 experience as a precedent.
• He expects the US 10-year Treasury yield may peak around August-September, which would be a signal for beaten-down stocks to rebound.
• He argues HBM/DRAM demand growth remains structural, with HBM demand forecasts rising sharply into 2027-2028.