Ideas
Snap stock comp makes it unattractive
Snap trades near all-time lows despite growing revenue and profits because stock-based compensation is massive — $2.5B over the last 12 months versus only $132M of Q3 adjusted EBIT — and its per-MAU monetization badly trails Meta; management has not adjusted course.
PayPal looks oversold after CEO exit
PayPal fell about 20% on the CEO exit, weak 2026 guidance, and withdrawn 2027 outlook, but the selloff feels very oversold given its half-billion users, Venmo, large revenue base, and potential AI/stablecoin/ChatGPT wallet optionality.
Caterpillar is a consistent compounder
Caterpillar has been an incredible compounder with no single-digit annual return since 2014, driven by industrial and manufacturing activity, and would have been a key holding for an American Dynamism investor.
Never fade Satya-led Microsoft
Microsoft sold off sharply after a tiny 0.4% Azure forecast miss, but the market should not fade Satya Nadella-led Microsoft; betting against the company after a trivial miss is a mistake.
Meta benefits from AI ad optimization
Digital advertising optimization is arguably the largest and most immediate commercial opportunity from large-scale AI, and ad platforms that invested heavily in ML optimization are disproportionately benefiting; outside Nvidia, Meta may make more profit from AI than any other company.
AI is net positive for SaaS
AI is total upside for SaaS because agents need systems of record, permissioning, workflow definitions, and user interfaces; incumbent software that owns workflows and data remains defensible, and new AI-native categories will emerge. He is generally bullish on software broadly.
Box's data and workflows are defensible
Box's large enterprise document stores, security permissions, access controls, and workflows become more valuable as AI agents run within them; he believes Box's position is very defensible and its data can become 10x to 100x more valuable.
Data demand makes storage strategic
In the AI era, data is the most important asset and the ability to get the right data to an agent is strategic; storage names like Western Digital and Seagate were dismissed as commodities but are now finally getting their day.
Cisco gains from AI networking demand
Cisco is transforming from a holding company into a platform; Splunk enhances security data correlation, and AI data-center scale requires advanced networking. Cisco offers owned silicon, systems, and software as choice for hyperscalers, with orders exceeding $2B versus a $1B target and Q1 alone above $1.3B.
TSMC and memory capacity constrained
The supply-chain baton passed from semiconductors to power/data centers, but semiconductor shortages will return in 2027. TSMC and memory makers are capacity constrained, especially with no new memory fabs since 2022 and scarce 3nm capacity.
Oracle fine despite terrible comms
Oracle's Twitter communications are terrible, but the company itself is fine; the selloff is driven by peak-negative sentiment on OpenAI rather than fundamental Oracle problems.
Robots have large non-fab markets
He is super bullish on robots, but not for semiconductor fabs; larger robotics markets are laundry, dishes, construction, and other labor-heavy tasks.
Adobe is not an AI winner
Adobe was mistaken for an AI company; after AI features caused a rally, the stock is falling again as people realize Adobe is not actually an AI company.
Meta's AI ads and platform win
Meta's AI ad algorithms are improving CPMs — up 9% despite a weak consumer — and algorithm effectiveness improved by double digits in one quarter; more AI-generated content should increase digital consumption, and Meta wins as a platform with strong wearables.
This TBPN video, published February 03, 2026,
features John Coogan, Jordi Hays, Aaron Levie, Jeetu Patel, Dylan Patel
discussing SNAP, PYPL, CAT, MSFT, META, IGV, BOX, WDC, STX, CSCO, TSM, SMH, ORCL, ROBO, ADBE.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
John Coogan,
Jordi Hays,
Aaron Levie,
Jeetu Patel,
Dylan Patel
· Tickers:
SNAP,
PYPL,
CAT,
MSFT,
META,
IGV,
BOX,
WDC,
STX,
CSCO,
TSM,
SMH,
ORCL,
ROBO,
ADBE
