Trump Cuts India Tariff; US-Iran Talks; SpaceX-xAI to Merge | Horizons Middle East & Africa 2/3/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 03, 2026 at 07:22  |  46:00  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Stephen Major — Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai
George Cheveley — Portfolio Manager, Ninety One
Christine Burke — Saudi Bureau Chief, Bloomberg
Min Min Low — China Correspondent, Bloomberg
Annabel Droulers — Anchor, Bloomberg TV
James McIntyre — Economist
Joumanna Bercetche — Anchor, Bloomberg
Stuart — Executive Editor

Summary

Asian equities and precious metals stabilized after a sharp selloff, helped by a rebound in gold and silver and strong U.S. manufacturing data. President Trump announced a cut in U.S. tariffs on India to 18% after India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, while U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are expected later in the week. SpaceX announced a merger with xAI ahead of a planned IPO at a combined $1.25 trillion valuation. The RBA raised rates by 25bp, and guests discussed Treasury curve positioning, JGBs, gold/silver fundamentals, and Saudi reform efforts.

  • Asian stocks rebounded after their worst selloff in more than two months.
  • Gold and silver stabilized after a violent unwind, with central bank buying still a focus.
  • U.S. tariff cuts on India and planned U.S.-Iran talks moved currency and oil markets.
  • The RBA hiked rates by 25bp to 3.85%, bucking the global easing trend.
  • Steven Major favored long Treasury belly and JGBs, while warning on S&P 500 valuations.
  • George Cheveley said gold's long-term fundamentals remain intact and silver still has a demand underpin.
  • Saudi Arabia's reforms and foreign ownership review could attract more foreign investment.
  • SpaceX and xAI announced a merger ahead of a planned IPO.
Ideas
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 9:25
Long Treasury belly beats steepener.
He is not convinced by a Treasury curve steepener, especially in 10s and 30s, because it requires buying four times as many 2s as 10s and the payoff is unclear. Instead, he favors going long the belly of the U.S. Treasury curve as the better expression of his rates view.
IEF MED
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 9:57
Buy Japan fixed income after selloff.
Japanese fixed income has become compelling after the sharp selloff: yields are at levels not seen before, compare favorably with other markets, and the low yen hedging cost makes the trade attractive. He thinks Japan can be oversold and that U.S. stabilization would help.
Japanese government bonds HIGH
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 10:36
S&P 500 valuations disconnected from real economy.
The most underpriced risk is overvaluation in risky assets, especially the S&P 500, whose valuations have become disconnected from the real economy and may not be sustainable. Financial assets are far away from the real economy, and a rotation could happen suddenly.
SPY HIGH
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 11:19
Rotate equities into credit on valuation.
Equity valuations are so stretched relative to credit that investors should rotate from equities into credit to secure an income stream through time. Within that relative trade, he highlights bank stocks versus certain bank bonds as an example where bonds may be more attractive.
Bank bonds MED
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 11:19
Rotate equities into credit on valuation.
Equity valuations are so stretched relative to credit that investors should rotate from equities into credit to secure an income stream through time. Within that relative trade, he highlights bank stocks versus certain bank bonds as an example where bonds may be more attractive.
BANK MED
George Cheveley Portfolio Manager, Ninety One 32:16
Gold long-term fundamentals intact despite volatility.
The gold selloff was triggered by Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination, a stronger dollar, and an unwind of froth after a huge run-up, but the longer-term drivers remain intact. Central bank buying is still historically strong, a new buyer base has emerged, and he sees gold basing around $4,500–5,000; investors should look through volatility.
GLD HIGH
George Cheveley Portfolio Manager, Ninety One 35:02
Silver fundamentals still underpinned by demand.
Silver differs from gold because it is a lower-value retail metal and more industrial-demand driven. High prices are causing some industrial users to cut usage, but after a long period of weak supply growth and recovering industrial demand, the market still has a fundamental underpin.
SILVER MED
Christine Burke Saudi Bureau Chief, Bloomberg 42:15
Saudi reforms could attract foreign equity investment.
Saudi Arabia's recent reforms—opening the equity market to more foreign investors, easing property rules, and reviewing foreign ownership limits—could attract more FDI and have investors asking whether to allocate to Saudi equities. However, implementation and clear communication of the reforms are crucial before investors commit.
KSA MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 03, 2026, features Stephen Major, George Cheveley, Christine Burke discussing IEF, Japanese government bonds, SPY, Bank bonds, BANK, GLD, SILVER, KSA. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stephen Major, George Cheveley, Christine Burke  · Tickers: IEF, Japanese government bonds, SPY, Bank bonds, BANK, GLD, SILVER, KSA