David Fitzgerald on investing in Venezuela: Political stability and security are two major factors

Summary

David Fitzgerald, a former CIA Latin America deputy division chief and president of Vector One Global, discusses how investors and multinationals should assess Venezuela after Nicolas Maduro's arrest. He says political stability and security guarantees are prerequisites for large Western investment, and that Venezuela is not yet at that point. Fitzgerald highlights Chevron's decades-long operating relationship and current production/export role, while reviewing PDVSA's deterioration, Delsa Rodriguez's limited authority, and China's large Venezuela exposure.

• Maduro's arrest prompts questions about Venezuela investment and security.
• Fitzgerald says Western multinationals need political stability and security guarantees.
• He is not convinced Venezuela currently meets those conditions.
• Chevron has operated in Venezuela for decades and now produces about 20% of its oil.
• Chevron also accounts for almost all oil shipped overseas amid sanctions.
• PDVSA deteriorated after Chavez-era underinvestment and talent departures.
• Delsa Rodriguez is seen as practical but constrained by competing powers.
• China receives most Venezuelan oil exports and has $12-$15 billion in outstanding loans.