Baseline characteristics in Moderna cancer vaccine 'misleading': Leerink's Dr. Mani Foroohar

Summary

Dr. Mani Foroohar of Leerink Partners discusses Moderna after its rally on positive cancer vaccine trial data. He argues the study's baseline characteristics are misleading and biased toward the active arm, so the data may not extrapolate well to broader oncology. He also highlights the pivotal melanoma readout as binary, an IP dispute with Roivant and Arbutus as a balance-sheet and margin risk, and headwinds to the base vaccine business. He maintains a cautious view with a much lower price target, saying optimism is already priced in and risk/reward is less attractive after the move.

• Moderna shares have rallied sharply after positive cancer vaccine trial data and reduced risk of recurrence or death versus Keytruda alone.
• Leerink's Mani Foroohar says the study's baseline characteristics favored the active arm, limiting extrapolation to broader oncology.
• He sees the pivotal melanoma data as binary and potentially delayed into 2027, creating volatility.
• He flags a March IP dispute with Roivant and Arbutus as a potential balance-sheet and margin risk.
• He views the CEO's pullback from late-stage U.S. vaccine trials as smart but reflective of negative headwinds to the base vaccine business, including COVID/flu combination.
• He says current valuation already bakes in much optimism and risk/reward is less attractive after the stock's move.