26.01.30 Market Update: Tesla, Is the Optimus Production Schedule Being Pulled Forward?…Why Meta Works and Microsoft Doesn't

[26.01.30.시황] 테슬라, 옵티머스 생산 일정 당기나?…메타는 되고 마이크로소프트는 안 되는 이유 [월가 뉴스레터]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 29, 2026 at 21:55  |  41:57  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Park Myung-sung — Global Market Strategist

Summary

Park Myung-sung and host Yeo Do-hoon reviewed the January 30 global market session, focusing on Microsoft's sharp drop, Meta's earnings-driven surge, Tesla's Optimus pivot, and the powerful memory semiconductor cycle. The discussion highlighted AI capex winners and losers, commodity strength in gold, copper, and oil, and event risks around Iran, US government shutdown, and the Fed. Apple's post-close earnings beat and the outlook for AI-capable iPhones were also covered.

  • Microsoft fell nearly 10% on Azure cloud deceleration, margin pressure, and OpenAI backlog concentration.
  • Meta jumped over 10% after earnings, with AI-driven ad gains and AR glasses growth supporting the bull case.
  • Tesla declined on free-cash-flow and margin concerns, but the Model S/X shift toward Optimus kept a long-term watch on the story.
  • Memory semiconductor names and KOSPI were framed as major beneficiaries of persistent DRAM/HBM/NAND tightness.
  • Gold, copper, and WTI crude rose on central-bank buying, AI data-center demand, and Iran-related supply risk.
  • Apple beat earnings after the close, with strong iPhone demand and the coming AI iPhone cycle as the key catalyst.
  • Other topics included FOMC rate-pause implications, shutdown risk, software weakness, and critical-minerals policy uncertainty.
Ideas
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 7:33
Geopolitical risk supports oil prices.
WTI crude jumped more than 3% as reports said Trump is considering a large-scale attack on Iran and Iran plans live-fire drills. Any disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could create a physical oil shortage. The chart is at resistance, but a break could quickly take prices to $70.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 10:21
Microsoft cloud slowdown raises OpenAI concentration risk.
Microsoft fell almost 10%, its worst day since 2013, because Azure cloud growth inflected lower, cloud gross margin kept falling, and 45% of its cloud backlog is tied to OpenAI, raising concentration risk. JPMorgan says software sentiment is broken. Citi and Morgan Stanley think the selloff is overdone and valuation is cheap, but the speaker says recovery may take time because Microsoft lacks a separate cash cow to fund AI.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 13:39
Nvidia China worries are temporary.
Nvidia was weak amid H200 China import approval uncertainty and US congressional concerns that exports helped DeepSeek. Morgan Stanley says part of the pressure is that the AI investment universe is broadening, with money rotating toward memory. The speaker expects these worries to be resolved and Nvidia to rise.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 14:49
Memory prices stay high and stocks cheap.
The AI buildout is now bottlenecked by memory, with DRAM/HBM/NAND prices refusing to fall and an unprecedented cycle since 2019. Even after big rallies, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate remain cheap on PER. SanDisk and Western Digital earnings are validating the shortage, and the memory cycle is strong enough to justify KOSPI 5,000 and possibly higher.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 15:23
Memory cycle justifies higher KOSPI.
The memory semiconductor cycle and low valuations of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix justify KOSPI at 5,000. Chat participants even talk about 7,000, and if Samsung and SK hynix move, the index could quickly reach 5,500.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 15:59
SanDisk earnings beat drives short squeeze.
SanDisk's EPS came in nearly double expectations, the stock jumped 15% after hours, and it has risen about 130% in a month. The move is driven by the memory shortage and short covering as bearish investors who faded the rally are forced to cover.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 20:26
Central-bank buying supports gold; JPMorgan sees $8,000.
Gold is supported as the dollar falls, central banks buy gold and their gold holdings surpass US Treasuries, and physical inventories shrink, forcing shorts to cover. JPMorgan has an $8,000 target. Volatility is high, but the speaker sees the rally continuing.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 22:49
AI data centers drive copper shortage.
Copper is rallying to new highs on AI data-center demand and expectations of a supply shortage that could deepen from 2030. The market is already pricing in that future deficit.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 24:00
Bitcoin lags ahead of Clarity Act catalyst.
Bitcoin is the one asset not participating in the broad commodity rally. The White House is expected to discuss the Clarity Act next Monday, so the speaker says to watch weekend headlines for a possible crypto catalyst.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 24:20
Meta proves AI investment returns.
Meta jumped more than 10% after earnings and proved that heavy AI investment can pay off. Ad revenue and engagement improved because Meta doubled GPUs and used AI for personalized content; Reels watch time rose over 30%, WhatsApp revenue exceeded $2B, and AR glasses sales tripled. Valuation remains cheap around 18x PER with price targets raised toward $880-900.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 28:54
Tesla near-term weak, but Optimus offers optionality.
Tesla fell because free cash flow fell 30% YoY, capex will more than double, and shifting FSD to a $99 monthly subscription from an $8,000 upfront payment pressures near-term margins. The long-term bull case is Optimus, as Model S/X are discontinued and their factory will be converted to Optimus, alongside robotaxi/FSD expansion and energy storage for xAI. A long-term view is needed.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 33:42
Caterpillar is an AI data-center generator play.
Caterpillar is no longer just a construction equipment company; it makes backup generators for AI data centers, where demand continues to grow. The stock has been in a steady uptrend.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 34:11
Aerospace defense demand remains strong.
Honeywell and Lockheed Martin are supported by strong aerospace and defense demand. Honeywell supplies exterior materials for rockets and spacecraft, and the speaker says this group continues to work.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 34:25
Mastercard political dip leaves fundamentals intact.
Mastercard fell after Trump declared an interest-rate cap, but the political headline cannot damage fundamentals, and the stock rebounded.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 34:35
Celestica TPU rumor creates uncertainty.
Celestica, a TPU value-chain company, fell despite strong earnings on a report that some TPU volumes could shift elsewhere, plus investigations and AI bubble concerns. The speaker says the selloff may be overdone, but the TPU transfer rumor needs confirmation.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 35:40
Critical minerals policy uncertainty creates opportunity.
The Trump administration's critical-mineral price-floor compensation policy may be abolished, creating policy uncertainty. MP Materials denied the report, and if MP is right the selloff may be an opportunity, but near-term uncertainty is high. MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Albemarle, and Centrus Energy fell.
Park Myung-sung Global Market Strategist 36:26
Apple earnings beat supports AI iPhone catalyst.
Apple's earnings beat on EPS and revenue, with iPhone revenue up 23% YoY, showing stronger demand including in China. Services missed slightly, but the key catalyst is the 20th-anniversary iPhone this year with on-device AI; Apple also acquired an Israeli AI startup. The speaker is positive on Apple.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 29, 2026, features Park Myung-sung discussing WTI, MSFT, NVDA, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, MU, WDC, STX, EWY, SNDK, GLD, COPPER, BTC, META, TSLA, CAT, HON, LMT, MA, CLS, MP, USA Rare Earth, ALB, LEU, AAPL. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Myung-sung  · Tickers: WTI, MSFT, NVDA, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, MU, WDC, STX, EWY, SNDK, GLD, COPPER, BTC, META, TSLA, CAT, HON, LMT, MA, CLS, MP, USA Rare Earth, ALB, LEU, AAPL