There's still risk to the downside for the Nasdaq-100, says Fairlead's Katie Stockton
Speakers
Katie Stockton
— Founder, Fairlead Strategies
Summary
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies provides technical analysis on markets. She sees downside risk for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 due to breakdowns and sell signals. Bitcoin is stabilizing and showing constructive short-term signs, while crude oil is poised for a higher low with improving long-term momentum. A new tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV) was also discussed.
- S&P 500 breached its 50-day moving average, triggering weekly MACD sell signal and pointing to intermediate-term corrective price action.
- Nasdaq-100 is in correction territory with a 10%+ downdraft and still has downside risk, not yet a buying opportunity.
- Bitcoin shows downside exhaustion, decouples from Nasdaq-100, and is basing near 50,000-58,000 support with improving short- to intermediate-term momentum.
- Crude oil pulled back from 90 resistance, expected to make a higher low above 67 support, supported by a bullish shift in long-term monthly MACD.
- New Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV) uses a momentum-based approach to adjust exposure and leverage.
Ideas
S&P 500 intermediate-term downside risk
The S&P 500 has breached its 50-day moving average and triggered new downturns in weekly indicators, including a weekly MACD sell signal. These signals suggest an intermediate-term corrective phase with more downside.
Nasdaq-100 still has downside risk
The Nasdaq-100 is in correction territory with a downdraft over 10%. Loss of momentum similar to that now seen in the S&P 500. It's too early to buy, and there is still downside risk based on technical indicators, with next support 5-6% lower.
Bitcoin constructive short-to-intermediate term
Bitcoin shows signs of downside exhaustion from a long-term perspective, and its decoupling from Nasdaq-100 is a positive. It is stabilizing and likely basing near support at 50,000-58,000. Short- to intermediate-term momentum gauges are improving, making us more constructive near term, while long term is still neutral pending more evidence of a turnaround.
Crude oil to make higher low
Crude oil pulled back sharply from resistance around 90 but is expected to make a higher low above support around 67. Long-term indicators have significantly improved, with a monthly MACD shift suggesting a different, more bullish trend.
