Oil markets are overshooting to the downside, says Abaxx Markets' Jeff Currie

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 18, 2026 at 18:20  |  4:29  |  CNBC
Speakers
Jeff Currie — CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group

Summary

Jeff Currie argues oil prices are overshooting to the downside due to destocking and a buyer strike ahead of peace talks, but expects a sharp rebound as pent-up demand returns. He sees significant value in integrated oil stocks like ExxonMobil, which have retraced all year-to-date gains despite strong refining margins and higher long-term price expectations. Trading liquidity has collapsed due to geopolitical uncertainty, amplifying the sell-off.

  • Oil market overshooting to the downside because of physical and financial destocking ahead of potential peace deal.
  • Pent-up demand from buyer strike expected to push oil prices back up within a month.
  • Industry cost structure suggests oil needs $80-85 to attract investment, supporting higher prices.
  • Integrated oil stocks like ExxonMobil have given up all 2024 gains, trading below pre-war levels.
  • ExxonMobil is seen as undervalued with near-record refining margins and higher price expectations.
  • Collapse in trading liquidity and open interest due to geopolitical back-and-forth has amplified downside.
Ideas
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 0:24
Oil overshot, pent-up demand to rebound
The oil market is overshooting to the downside due to a buyer strike and destocking in both physical and financial markets. A month from now, pent-up demand will push prices back up. The underlying cost structure requires $80-85 to attract investment, and current prices are below that, indicating an overshoot. This creates a bullish setup for a price rebound.
WTI HIGH
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 1:41
Integrated oils undervalued after sell-off
Big integrated oil companies like ExxonMobil have given up all their gains this year, trading below pre-war levels despite refining margins near record highs and much higher long-term price expectations. ExxonMobil is trading at 136 vs 153 before the war, yet its business fundamentals are stronger. This disconnect offers lots of value in the space.
XOM HIGH
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This CNBC video, published June 18, 2026, features Jeff Currie discussing WTI, XOM. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeff Currie  · Tickers: WTI, XOM