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Chesley Morning Brief - NYSE rises despite Middle East risk, S&P500 and Nasdaq hit new highs again [26/05/12]

[체슬리모닝브리프] 뉴욕증시, 중동 리스크에도 '상승'…S&P500·나스닥 또 최고치 [26/05/12]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 11, 2026 at 22:15  |  1:48:11  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist
Oh Seok-gwa — Analyst
Park Jun-hyeok — Crypto Analyst
Seo Yeong — Analyst
Wang Bujang — China Market Analyst

Summary

The video reviews US and Korean markets, highlighting the continued AI semiconductor rally led by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Analysts argue valuations are supported by strong EPS growth and Big Tech capex. A detailed analysis of Simmtech (PCB/substrate) shows 50% upside potential. Bitcoin resistance is noted as a watch. The US market shows sector rotation with small caps outperforming large caps, but risks include rising oil prices and bond yields.

  • US indices hit new highs despite Middle East tensions, led by semiconductors.
  • Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX) rally justified by 84.9% EPS growth and reasonable PEG.
  • Big Tech capex cycle remains intact; no slowdown signal yet.
  • Simmtech (PCB) projected 50% upside driven by price hikes and AI socket demand.
  • Bitcoin faces resistance at $82k-$83k; monitor for trend direction.
  • Small-cap stocks outperforming large caps in US market.
  • Rising oil (WTI $98) and 10-year yield (4.41%) pose risks.
  • Chinese semiconductor stocks rallied on tariff news and Trump visit expectations.
Ideas
Park Jun-hyeok Crypto Analyst 0:28
Bitcoin resistance zone, monitor for break.
Bitcoin faces strong resistance at $82,000-$83,000, which aligns with the ETF average cost. If it fails to break through and loses support, the trend could be bearish, potentially requiring a wait until around October for a better entry. The setup is worth monitoring for a potential long entry if support holds and resistance is broken.
BTC MED
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 35:09
Semiconductor rally sustainable, no bubble yet.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rally is justified by strong EPS growth, reasonable PEG ratios, and sustained Big Tech capex. The AI infrastructure cycle remains intact with no signs of capex slowdown, so the rally can continue until a clear trigger like Big Tech capex reduction appears. Current PEG for SOX is 0.6x, and EPS growth for 2025 is around 84.9% weighted average, supporting valuations.
^SOX HIGH
Oh Seok-gwa Analyst 72:35
Simmtech 50% upside on AI substrate demand.
Simmtech (036710.KS) benefits from PCB/substrate price increases, rising utilization rates (from 76% to 95% projected), and new socket demand from AI CPUs (both GPU and CPU racks). Q2 earnings are expected to beat consensus by 27% with a 12% operating margin. Based on 2027 EPS and 30x PE (30% discount to global peers), the fair market cap is 6.3 trillion won, implying 50% upside from current levels.
036710.KS HIGH
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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published May 11, 2026, features Park Jun-hyeok, Park Se-ik, Oh Seok-gwa discussing BTC, ^SOX, 036710.KS. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Park Jun-hyeok, Park Se-ik, Oh Seok-gwa  · Tickers: BTC, ^SOX, 036710.KS