Likely to see swift revision lower in semi-AI trade, says BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky

Summary

Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG discusses extreme market concentration where only tech/AI semiconductors are driving gains while most stocks lag. He warns that the semi AI trade is in the later innings and likely to see a swift reversion lower, drawing parallels to the late 1990s tech bubble.

• Only 49% of S&P 500 components are above their 50-day moving average despite the index being 8% above its own 50-day.
• 8% of S&P 500 names are at 52-week lows, tying a record from late 1999.
• The equal-weight S&P 500 has failed to make a new high alongside the cap-weighted index.
• Krinsky says the semi AI trade is overextended and likely to reverse sharply.
• He does not expect a 2000-style crash but warns of a meaningful pullback in the concentrated leaders.
• Host questions whether private AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic change the dynamic, but Krinsky sees risks regardless.