The Real Bottom Is 'Here'... A Strong Bull Market Restarts from This Point / Why a Q3 Decline in the US Stock Market Is Expected

Summary

Daishin Securities Senior Research Fellow Moon Nam-joong expects the KOSPI may fall to around 5,000 in Q3 due to US tariffs and BOK rate hikes, but from Q4 a powerful bull market will resume, led by semiconductor stocks. He sees a possible Q4 Fed rate cut as catalyst and advises patience, shifting portfolios toward Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. He also expects near-term US equity declines.

• KOSPI may decline to ~5,000 in Q3 on US tariff and rate concerns.
• From Q4, easing inflation, potential war end, and possible Fed cut could ignite a strong rally.
• Semiconductors, especially Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, will lead the recovery.
• US stocks face near-term downside risk from a bearish technical pattern and new Section 301 tariffs.
• Foreign investors likely to return after war resolution, fueling a rebound.
• Bank of Korea expected to hike once more, causing near-term stock market volatility.
• US economic expansion expected to continue until mid-2027, supporting global equities.