Iran Attacks US Bases, Saudi Arabia Joins Strikes in Iran

Summary

Iran attacked US military bases overnight, ending a multi-day lull, and Saudi Arabia joined US strikes on Tehran-backed militias in Iraq. The renewed escalation pushed crude oil prices up 4% to $87 a barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining paralyzed and the Bab el-Mandeb waterway now also threatened by Houthi attacks. Oman-Iran talks about opening a middle passage in the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing but not yet concluded.

• Iran attacked US bases overnight; all missiles intercepted per CENTCOM.
• Saudi Arabia conducted strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq.
• The attacks ended a days-long calm following a US halt of strikes on Iran.
• Crude oil rose 4% to $87/bbl amid renewed regional risk.
• Strait of Hormuz remains blocked; Bab el-Mandeb now also at risk from Houthi activity.
• Media reports suggested the US pause may be due to diminishing munitions, which Trump denied.
• Oman-Iran discussions to create a middle passage for tankers in Hormuz are not finalized.
• Further escalation is anticipated as Iran retains cheap drone manufacturing capability.