Korea's Economy Amid US-China Blocization: Uncomfortable but Unavoidable Reality | Professor Cho Won-kyung, Sejong University

Summary

Cho Won-kyung, Professor of Economics at Sejong University, discusses the shift toward national capitalism and US-China blocization, arguing that state support for strategic industries is reshaping global supply chains and creating structural headwinds for Korea. He sees Korea facing a weak won and a difficult external environment, but identifies selective strengths such as floating offshore wind, defense, and U.S.-linked innovation exposure. On portfolio allocation, he favors scarce assets like gold, silver, and Gangnam real estate, strong currencies including the dollar and euro, and U.S. equities, while warning that semiconductor stocks are cyclical and less durable than gold or prime real estate.

• Global economy is shifting from free trade toward state-led national capitalism and US-China bloc competition.
• Korea faces structural headwinds, including a weak won and pressure from both major blocs.
• The speaker favors scarce assets: gold, silver, and Gangnam real estate.
• He favors strong currencies, especially the U.S. dollar and euro, and continued dollar-asset exposure.
• He prefers U.S. equities for innovation leadership and continued portfolio inclusion.
• He is cautious on semiconductor stocks due to cyclicality and limited DRAM/HBM shortage duration.
• He prefers defense stocks over ESG stocks given military spending and ESG cost issues.
• He highlights floating offshore wind and Ulsan as a potential long-term Korean growth hub.