Name: Open War: Trump Targets the Fed |Macro Mondays: January 12, 2026
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T15:49:26+00:00
Duration: 1912 s

Speakers

Andreas Steno Larsen — Founder, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold — Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association

Summary

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold discuss the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve after a DOJ subpoena and Powell's public response. They frame it as a threat to Fed independence that is dollar-negative and supportive of gold, with potential upside for Bitcoin/crypto and a less clear case for silver. They also cover US equity rotation, budget-linked drones, AI/grid/data-center investment, and a broad stay-invested-in-US thesis despite political risk.

DOJ subpoena and Powell's video escalate Fed-Trump conflict.
Andreas sees the dollar negatively and gold as a no-brainer.
Bitcoin/crypto could get a momentum trigger from the Fed crisis.
Silver is viewed as less clear than gold.
US equities show rotation into small caps, energy, and banks.
AI demand supports grid and data-center investment themes.
Defense budget and drone spending are seen as positive themes.
Broad US asset allocation remains favored despite institutional risks.

Ideas

Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 11:57

Fed crisis undermines dollar

The DOJ/Powell clash is a trust shock for the US dollar and the dollar system. Andreas says this is not a good story for the dollar, can be played directly in FX, and is reinforced by potential reserve diversification away from dollar assets.

Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 12:11

Central banks buy gold

Gold is a no-brainer because the global south has been buying it on trend and the Powell/Trump conflict may push G10 central banks to diversify reserves into gold. Large official-sector flows can move the market.

Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 12:36

Silver less clear than gold

Silver is less compelling than gold because it is not a monetary metal, few central banks hold it, and it is already well subscribed. Despite current strength, the setup is not as clear as gold.

Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 13:08

Bitcoin may rally on Fed crisis

Bitcoin and crypto have been searching for a momentum trigger, and the Fed independence crisis could provide it. Positioning is less crowded than in gold and silver, so a renewed rally could have larger upside. Andreas says he has decent exposure.

Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 19:04

Rotate into small caps energy banks

The US equity market is showing a classic cyclical rotation: small caps outperforming large caps, energy recovering from abysmal levels, and banks outperforming technology. Andreas thinks this remains a likely theme for the year because small caps have not priced in a strong US recovery and there is scope for broader repricing as the administration stimulates growth.

Mikkel Rosenvold Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association 22:37

Drones benefit from defense budget

Budget-linked themes, especially drones, should benefit as the administration directs more spending to defense and emerging technology. Dividend restrictions may favor emerging drone companies that do not pay dividends, even if the full $500B increase is unlikely.

Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 24:04

AI grid data center demand

AI demand is effectively infinite but the real economy will struggle to deliver, making grid and data center investment a key 2026 theme. Three major electricity deals were announced in the first week, showing a lot of activity.

Mikkel Rosenvold Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association 26:35

Stay invested in US assets

Despite political and institutional risks, the US is using state capitalism and massive strategic-sector investment, and record foreign inflows continue as long as inflation stays contained. This makes it hard not to stay invested in US assets.

Open War: Trump Targets the Fed |Macro Mondays: January 12, 2026

Summary

Ideas

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