Winter storm's impact on business and markets could last 'well past the weekend': G2 Weather's Walsh

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 23, 2026 at 22:57  |  4:58  |  CNBC
Speakers
Paul Walsh — Head of Research Product, Europe

Summary

Paul Walsh of G2 Weather Intelligence joins Fast Money to discuss a major winter storm and cold snap. He expects the storm to shut down consumer activity across the South and Northeast, hurting Q4 retail sales and creating downside earnings risk for retailers. He highlights Home Depot's greater exposure through its pro construction business and warns that Gap and Ross Stores may have pulled Q4 demand into Q3.

  • A winter hurricane with ice and heavy snow is expected across the South and Northeast.
  • The storm is expected to close stores and sharply reduce weekend consumer activity.
  • Paul Walsh sees a chunk of Q4 retail sales at risk and possible downside earnings surprises.
  • Home Depot is more exposed because its pro construction business could be disrupted.
  • Home centers and grocers may see pre-storm demand, but closures offset the benefit.
  • Gap and Ross Stores' Q3 upside may have borrowed from Q4 demand due colder October weather.
  • The host pushes back that weather impacts may be short-term and should be looked past.
Ideas
Paul Walsh Head of Research Product, Europe 1:15
Winter storm cuts Q4 retail sales.
The historic winter storm and the following cold snap will shut down consumer activity across large parts of the South and Northeast, closing stores and taking a meaningful chunk out of Q4 retail sales. That creates risk of downside earnings surprises for retailers when results are released next week or next month.
Paul Walsh Head of Research Product, Europe 2:10
Home Depot pro business storm-exposed.
Home centers may get a pre-storm sales bump, but shutdowns offset much of it. Home Depot is more exposed than other home centers because its pro construction business could be disrupted if contractors cannot work for several days or a week after the storm.
Paul Walsh Head of Research Product, Europe 2:22
Grocery storm impact needs monitoring.
Grocery retailers are seeing a pre-storm stock-up with long lines and depleted shelves, but the net impact is uncertain: they need strong execution to keep up, and stores could be shut down over the weekend and into next week, contributing to the Q4 retail sales hit.
Paul Walsh Head of Research Product, Europe 4:28
Weather pulled Q4 sales into Q3.
Gap and Ross Stores reported Q3 upside helped by colder late-October weather, but some Q4 demand may have been pulled forward into Q3. That sets up a risk that Q4 results or guidance disappoint relative to the weather-driven Q3 strength.
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This CNBC video, published January 23, 2026, features Paul Walsh discussing XRT, HD, Grocery retailers, GAP, ROST. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Paul Walsh  · Tickers: XRT, HD, Grocery retailers, GAP, ROST