Name: Tech Investor Dan Niles talks what to expect from Big Tech earnings
Uploaded: 2026-01-23T22:13:48+00:00
Duration: 289 s

Speakers

Dan Niles — Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management

Summary

Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of Niles Investment Management, joins Fast Money to preview upcoming Big Tech earnings. He is most constructive on Apple for 2026 due to a potential foldable AI iPhone upgrade cycle, and he likes Microsoft into earnings because OpenAI revenue growth supports Azure and Microsoft has more drivers than OpenAI alone. He also flags rising memory costs as a margin headwind and points to a divergence between the Google ecosystem and the OpenAI ecosystem, with OpenAI funding needs a key risk.

Dan Niles previews Big Tech earnings, focusing on Apple and Microsoft.
He expects Apple's services strength and a foldable AI iPhone to drive a 2026 upgrade cycle.
He likes Microsoft into earnings, citing OpenAI-driven Azure growth and Microsoft's cash generation.
He warns that rising memory costs pressure Apple and Microsoft margins.
He highlights the Google ecosystem outperforming the OpenAI ecosystem since late October.
He says OpenAI funding ambitions are a key swing factor for OpenAI-linked stocks.

Ideas

Dan Niles Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management 0:34

Apple 2026 AI upgrade cycle

Dan Niles is most excited about Apple as a 2026 call rather than a current-quarter trade. He expects services to be surprisingly strong with high margins, offsetting some memory-cost pressure on Apple's margins. He sees a foldable iPhone and AI-enabled Siri at the end of the year driving the first solid upgrade cycle in a long time, similar to the iPhone 6 cycle, and thinks the quarter will be strong and guidance can clear the decks.

Dan Niles Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management 3:14

Microsoft has more plays than OpenAI

Dan Niles likes Microsoft into earnings because he expects solid numbers, driven by OpenAI's revenue run-rate growth from about $6 billion in 2020 to $20 billion exiting 2025 and a plan for $44 billion this year, which supports Azure. He notes Microsoft owns about 27% of OpenAI and that OpenAI losses and funding needs are a key risk, but he favors Microsoft because it has more plays than just OpenAI and is generating substantial cash. He also flags rising memory costs as a headwind.

Dan Niles Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management 4:04

Google ecosystem outperforms OpenAI ecosystem

Dan Niles highlights a divergence between two groups of stocks since late October: the Google ecosystem is up about 20% since October 29, while the OpenAI ecosystem, including SoftBank and Oracle, is down about 20%. He attributes the split to investor focus on how OpenAI will fund its spending ambitions, making OpenAI funding risk the key variable for OpenAI-exposed stocks and a setup to monitor relative to the Google ecosystem.

Dan Niles Founder & Portfolio Manager, Niles Investment Management 4:04

Google ecosystem outperforms OpenAI ecosystem

Tech Investor Dan Niles talks what to expect from Big Tech earnings

Summary

Ideas

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