National Pension Service 50 Trillion Won Sell-off Rumor, Is the Korean Stock Market in a Real Crisis? / KOSDAQ Plunge... The Reason You'll Regret Selling Now the Most

Summary

Han Jiyoung argues that NPS selling fears are exaggerated and won't crash the KOSPI. She sees semiconductor stocks continuing to lead on AI demand and long-term contracts that stabilize earnings. KOSPI will likely advance after a summer correction, while the oversold KOSDAQ offers a buying opportunity for the second half.

• National Pension Service rebalancing fears are exaggerated; the sell-off will be gradual and not disrupt KOSPI's direction.
• Foreign selling is mainly profit-taking on semiconductors, not a sign of a systemic crisis.
• The momentum factor remains strong, dominated by semiconductor stocks that benefit from AI demand and long-term supply contracts (LTA).
• LTA contracts reduce earnings volatility for Korean memory makers, creating a floor under stock prices and supporting KOSPI's upward trend.
• KOSDAQ has dropped 30% from highs, largely due to liquidity rotation to KOSPI; the oversold condition and policy expectations suggest a rebound in H2.
• The Fed is expected to hold rates and inflation is peaking, with the market focusing more on data than Fed speeches.