Arthur Hayes on AI Capex, the Yuan Tolls, and HYPE

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 12, 2026 at 12:57  |  1:03:59  |  Unchained (Chopping Block)
Speakers
Arthur Hayes — CIO, Maelstrom

Summary

Arthur Hayes argues that the combination of the Iran war, AI capex, and commodity stockpiling is inflationary and will force central banks to print money, benefiting crypto. He is long Bitcoin, HYPE, Zcash, and NEAR, and warns of a future AI bubble pop. He also discusses the structural decline in US Treasury demand and the geopolitical shift away from dollar assets.

  • Arthur Hayes expects inflation from war and AI spending to lead to more money printing, bullish for Bitcoin.
  • He is long HYPE due to its tokenomics, real volume, and weekend price discovery of traditional indices.
  • Zcash is his largest non-Bitcoin position, betting on growing privacy needs and undervaluation.
  • NEAR is his next favorite crypto asset because of shielded Zcash integration and fee economics.
  • He believes AI capex is a bubble that will burst when a major IPO or merger flops.
  • Foreign central banks are structurally reducing Treasury holdings, which the Fed will offset with liquidity.
  • He is casually speculating on AI stocks but acknowledges the irrationality.
  • The Iran war is reshaping global trade routes and reducing trust in dollar assets.
Trade Ideas
Arthur Hayes CIO, Maelstrom 6:20
Inflationary war spending bullish for Bitcoin.
Wars, AI capex, and commodity stockpiling are inflationary, forcing central banks to print money. This liquidity creation is bullish for Bitcoin as a hard asset that cannot be debased.
BTC HIGH
Arthur Hayes CIO, Maelstrom 44:21
Revenue buybacks and real volume drive HYPE.
Hype token benefits from excellent tokenomics (no VC overhang, 97% revenue buyback), real organic volume (low ADV/OI ratio), and a first-mover advantage in weekend trading of traditional indices on a permissionless perp DEX. The team has been responsible with unlocks, and the platform survived low-fee competition.
HYPE HIGH
Arthur Hayes CIO, Maelstrom 50:55
Privacy need grows; Zcash undervalued.
Zcash has the strongest cryptography for private transactions. As AI and big tech make on-chain surveillance easier, demand for privacy will grow. Zcash is significantly undervalued relative to Bitcoin, offering an asymmetric bet. He holds it as his largest position outside Bitcoin.
ZEC HIGH
Arthur Hayes CIO, Maelstrom 53:59
Shielded Zcash integration drives NEAR fees.
NEAR's integration with shielded Zcash via intents enables anonymous swaps to any crypto. Each transaction pays a fee to the NEAR protocol. If volumes grow, NEAR could become deflationary, driving the price up significantly.
NEAR MED
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This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published May 12, 2026, features Arthur Hayes discussing BTC, HYPE, ZEC, NEAR. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Arthur Hayes  · Tickers: BTC, HYPE, ZEC, NEAR