Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha lays out his bullish case on Apple driven by software upgrades, explains his firm's decision to exit Alphabet due to brain drain and AI model deterioration, and advocates for semiconductors as the AI trade momentum reset is over. He draws parallels to the 1998 dot-com washout to support a semiconductor recovery.
- Believes Apple's software (Apple Intelligence, new Siri) will drive iPhone upgrade demand, not hardware price increases.
- Internal view that new Siri meets expectations, which is positive given past disappointment.
- Exited Alphabet (Google) position entirely due to brain drain, declining Gemini model rankings, and difficulty competing with OpenAI/Anthropic.
- Thinks AI trade momentum reset is over, with July washout similar to 1998 LTCM event, and money now moving into semiconductors.
- Notes semiconductor index had a 30% drawdown, sees complete washout and potential recovery.
- No other specific names mentioned; adding to some AI positions and exiting others that played out.
- Host Scott Wapner questions the tech comeback and where money is flowing, but no additional theses from the host.