Macro Time, The Key to a Second Rise? | Hong Seon-ae, Park Jong-yeon, IBK Pension Insurance Securities Operations Manager [Yeouido Insight]

Summary

Park Jong-yeon, Director at IBK Pension Insurance Securities Operations, argues that the recent sharp correction in the Korean market is a necessary cooling-off after an overheated first half, not the end of the cycle. He believes the AI and semiconductor cycle remains intact, making Samsung Electronics and SK hynix attractive core holdings. A second leg up for KOSPI depends on foreign investors returning once dollar strength eases and the Bank of Korea hikes rates to stabilize the won, requiring patience during the consolidation phase.

• The sharp correction was exaggerated by leverage ETF unwinding and pension rebalancing, but the bull trend is not broken.
• AI and semiconductor cycle is alive, supported by Micron's long-term contracts, supply shortage, and rising memory prices.
• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remain cheap with strong momentum and should be held in core portfolios.
• Foreign sales of ~160T won were driven by mechanical rebalancing and strong dollar; that selling pressure is likely near completion.
• The second rally hinges on foreign buying returning, triggered by a weaker dollar and won stabilization via BOK hikes.
• Oil price decline should ease inflation fears and gradually reduce Fed hawkishness, helping the won and Korean assets.
• Investors should accept a sideways range and not expect an immediate V-shaped rebound; patience is needed until macro signals align.