Could see bond market sell-off if SCOTUS rules against Trump tariffs, says Stifel's Brian Gardner

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 08, 2026 at 21:46  |  5:57  |  CNBC
Speakers
Brian Gardner — Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel

Summary

Brian Gardner, Stifel's chief Washington policy strategist, discusses the policy and market implications of recent Washington developments. He sees political risk for single-family rental owners, pressure on large legacy defense contractors, and a procurement tailwind for smaller defense firms. Gardner also expects the Supreme Court to rule against the administration's IEEPA tariffs and warns a ruling could trigger a bond market sell-off.

  • Republican base shift makes single-family rental industry a bipartisan target.
  • Administration and NDAA pressure large legacy defense contractors.
  • Smaller defense firms may benefit from easier procurement access.
  • Defense budget increase and executive-order sticks shape defense strategy.
  • Supreme Court tariff ruling is expected against the administration.
  • Tariff ruling could trigger bond market sell-off.
Ideas
Brian Gardner Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel 2:29
Single-family rental faces bipartisan policy risk.
The Republican base has shifted toward working-class renters, and populist Republicans in the White House and bipartisan figures like Elizabeth Warren view the single-family rental industry with suspicion. That makes the industry a tempting bipartisan policy target and creates regulatory and political risk for institutional single-family rental owners.
Single-family rental industry MED
Brian Gardner Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel 3:43
Large legacy defense contractors face policy pressure.
There is bipartisan frustration in the administration and on Capitol Hill with how slowly large legacy defense contractors deliver on contracts. The NDAA makes it easier for smaller defense firms to win procurement contracts, and the administration's executive-order stick ties shareholder returns and executive pay to performance, pressuring large legacy contractors to become more aggressive.
ITA MED
Brian Gardner Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel 4:02
Smaller defense firms gain procurement access.
The fall National Defense Authorization Act includes provisions that make it easier for smaller defense firms to get federal procurement contracts. The administration and Congress want to open the door to smaller competitors of large legacy defense firms, creating a relative policy tailwind for smaller defense contractors.
Smaller defense firms MED
Brian Gardner Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel 5:00
Tariff loss could spark bond sell-off.
Brian Gardner expects the Supreme Court to rule against the administration on its IEEPA tariffs. If the Court strikes down the tariffs, it could trigger a bond market sell-off, making bonds vulnerable around the decision.
Bond market MED
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This CNBC video, published January 08, 2026, features Brian Gardner discussing Single-family rental industry, ITA, Smaller defense firms, Bond market. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brian Gardner  · Tickers: Single-family rental industry, ITA, Smaller defense firms, Bond market