Historic market: confirmation bias is driving prices higher | Lee Seok-jin, Adjunct Professor at Korea Banking Institute

역사적 장세, 확증편향이 가격을 끌어올리고 있다 | 이석진 한국금융연수원 겸임교수 [심층인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 30, 2026 at 10:45  |  54:42  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Lee Seok-jin — Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author
Hong Sun-hye — Anchor

Summary

Lee Seok-jin, an adjunct professor at Korea Banking Institute, analyzes the historic surge in gold, silver, copper, and Korean equities, arguing that confirmation bias, monetary distrust, and policy-driven liquidity are pulling prices higher. He sees gold as a long-term core asset supported by central-bank buying, dollar weakness, fiscal deficits, and Trump-related uncertainty, while warning that precious metals are overheated and should be position-sized carefully. He also highlights copper's AI-driven demand and supply deficit, Korea Zinc as a silver proxy, and cautions on KOSDAQ's earningsless rally and bitcoin's broken currency-race bid.

  • Gold is viewed as a long-term core asset, but the current rally is overheated.
  • Central-bank buying, dollar weakness, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical uncertainty support gold.
  • Silver, platinum, and palladium are high-beta precious-metal plays with high volatility.
  • Copper benefits from AI/data-center demand, supply-chain reshoring, and supply deficits.
  • Crude oil remains cheap and is limiting inflation, but higher oil would be an inflation risk.
  • Korea Zinc is highlighted as a domestic equity proxy for higher silver prices.
  • KOSPI is earnings-supported, while KOSDAQ's rally is more expectation-driven and fragile.
  • Bitcoin and US Treasuries are seen as losing relative appeal as capital rotates toward gold.
Ideas
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 6:36
Hold gold; bull market likely persists.
Gold is a long-term core asset and should be held. The current surge is driven by inflation expectations, dollar debasement, US fiscal deficits, persistent central-bank gold buying, Trump-related geopolitical uncertainty, and confirmation bias/momentum. He sees the bull market likely supported through Trump's term, but warns the move is overheated; a simple VAT-free implementation is a gold ETF.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 8:24
Dollar weak; Treasuries unattractive; favor gold.
The US dollar is weakening and US Treasuries are losing appeal as Trump-era policy uncertainty, fiscal expansion, heavier issuance, and central-bank diversification away from dollar reserves reduce their attractiveness relative to gold.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 8:24
Dollar weak; Treasuries unattractive; favor gold.
The US dollar is weakening and US Treasuries are losing appeal as Trump-era policy uncertainty, fiscal expansion, heavier issuance, and central-bank diversification away from dollar reserves reduce their attractiveness relative to gold.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 9:22
Bitcoin loses currency-race bid to gold.
Bitcoin has fallen from around $120,000 to the low $80,000s, and the former dollar-gold-bitcoin balance has broken. Capital is choosing gold over bitcoin, leaving bitcoin relatively unattractive.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 10:26
KOSPI earnings and policy support upside.
The KOSPI rally is supported by strong corporate earnings and government policy, and Korea is being recognized as a value asset in global equities, though confirmation bias and momentum require caution.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 10:43
KOSDAQ lacks earnings; rally is fragile.
The KOSDAQ rally is driven more by government 3,000 target expectations and retail greed/confirmation bias than by earnings, making it fragile compared with the earnings-backed KOSPI.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 29:20
Silver leveraged, but relatively expensive versus gold.
Silver is a high-beta precious metal: it rises more than gold when gold rises but falls harder when gold falls. Its main driver remains the gold narrative, with incremental industrial demand from AI, electronics, defense/space, solar and wind. However, high prices can encourage substitution/demand destruction, and the gold/silver ratio near 50 means silver is relatively expensive versus gold.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 29:24
Platinum, palladium are high-beta gold proxies.
Platinum and palladium are leveraged precious metals: they tend to rise more than gold when gold rallies and fall more when gold declines. They are high-beta expressions of a bullish gold view, with correspondingly higher risk.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 35:16
Korea Zinc leveraged to silver prices.
Korea Zinc is the Korean company that benefits most from high silver prices because most silver is produced as a byproduct of refining zinc, copper and lead. Higher silver prices can sharply increase its operating profit and have supported its share price, making it an equity alternative to direct silver exposure.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 40:09
AI demand and deficits lift copper.
Copper is supported by AI/data-center and broad infrastructure demand, government-led supply-chain reshoring, and a supply deficit after years of underinvestment. China's weak property demand is a partial drag, but AI-related positives are dominating investor sentiment.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 48:21
Low oil caps inflation; watch upside risk.
Crude oil remains historically cheap, which has helped keep inflation contained despite strength in other commodities. If oil were to rise, it would add significant inflation pressure, but he does not currently expect that; it is an important inflation-risk monitor.
Lee Seok-jin Adjunct Professor, Korea Financial Training Institute, Author 51:04
Cap precious-metals portfolio weight near 5%.
In an overheated precious-metals market, investors should review portfolio weights. A maximum of around 5% in gold/precious metals is reasonable, and if price gains have pushed the allocation above 10%, that is likely too much and should be trimmed.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 30, 2026, features Lee Seok-jin discussing GLD, USD, TLT, BTC, EWY, KOSDAQ, SILVER, PPLT, PALL, 010130.KS, COPPER, WTI, GLTR. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Seok-jin  · Tickers: GLD, USD, TLT, BTC, EWY, KOSDAQ, SILVER, PPLT, PALL, 010130.KS, COPPER, WTI, GLTR