AI Was Just the Beginning. Quantum Is Next.
Speakers
Josh Kale
— Co-Host, Limitless Podcast (Bankless)
Ejaaz Ahamadeen
— Co-Host, Limitless Podcast (Bankless)
Summary
Quantum computing is emerging as the next major technology wave after AI, with US government backing through executive orders and investments. The hosts explain quantum basics, how it threatens encryption, and the early stage of fault-tolerant qubits. They highlight key public companies positioned to benefit: Google and Microsoft as leaders, IBM as a commercial provider with government funding, and small-cap pure-plays Rigetti and D-Wave. They see a 5-10 year investment opportunity resembling the early days of AI.
- Quantum computing is gaining momentum with US executive orders to build a quantum computer by 2028 and harden systems against quantum attacks.
- Qubits enable exponentially faster computation, threatening current encryption standards including Bitcoin's elliptical curve cryptography.
- Fault-tolerant qubits are still in the early hundreds, but scaling is expected to follow an exponential curve.
- Google (Willow chip, 105 qubits) and Microsoft are leading the race with clear roadmaps.
- IBM received $1B of the $2B government quantum investment, serving over 210 organizations with real-world applications.
- Small-cap quantum companies Rigetti (neocloud model) and D-Wave (enterprise optimization) also received government funding and could ride the trend.
- The hosts view quantum as a long-term asymmetric investment resembling early AI, though they have not yet invested personally.
Ideas
Google and Microsoft lead quantum computing race
Google and Microsoft are the two clear leaders in fault-tolerant quantum computing. They have been investing for over a decade, possess the most resources, have published roadmaps showing orders-of-magnitude improvements every couple of years, and have already achieved triple-digit fault-tolerant qubits (Google Willow 105). As the field moves from R&D to real-world impact, these tech giants are best positioned to capture the next exponential wave, similar to how Google led in AI.
IBM is a funded quantum leader with commercial traction
IBM has a unique position in quantum computing. The US government just allocated $1 billion (50% of its $2 billion quantum investment) to IBM. IBM Quantum already serves over 210 organizations with real-world applications (e.g., Cleveland Clinic for protein simulation, HSBC for trading algorithms). They are scaling qubits from 120 to 360 rapidly, and this early commercial traction combined with massive government backing makes IBM a compelling quantum play.
Rigetti is a small-cap quantum neocloud play
Rigetti operates as a 'neocloud' for quantum computing, owning the entire vertical stack from chip design to fabrication. It is a small-cap pure-play (~$7.1B market cap) that could capture quantum infrastructure growth. It was part of the US government's quantum investment and represents a high-upside, early-stage bet similar to early AI infrastructure companies, though it has not yet proven scalability.
D-Wave is an enterprise quantum optimization bet
D-Wave focuses on bridging quantum hardware and enterprise applications, optimizing the entire stack for practical use. It received a $100 million government check, is a small market-cap pure-play, and is trading with renewed volume since the Google Willow announcement. It offers exposure to the quantum adoption curve, though the technology is still pre-revenue and unproven at scale.
