Ives: Nvidia Earnings Could Be the Next Big Catalyst for AI Stocks
Speakers
Dan Ives
— Managing Director, Wedbush Securities
Summary
Dan Ives discusses Nvidia's Wednesday earnings as a major potential catalyst for AI stocks, arguing AI demand is accelerating and Nvidia remains the core AI chip leader. He also lays out investable themes around sovereign AI data control, Apple's consumer AI toll-collector position, and a software recovery led by Microsoft, Palantir, and ServiceNow.
- Cheaper AI models are seen expanding AI adoption and AI spend.
- Nvidia earnings after Wednesday's close are framed as a key AI demand signal, with AI demand said to have accelerated about 20% recently.
- Reported AI server price increases and strong hyperscaler earnings are cited as supportive for Nvidia.
- AI sovereignty and enterprise data control are called a major tech tug of war, with Palantir highlighted.
- Apple's upcoming iPhone announcement is viewed through its consumer AI strategy and installed base of 1.5 billion iPhones.
- The software selloff is called overdone as AI use cases increasingly benefit software companies.
- Microsoft, Palantir and ServiceNow are named as software beneficiaries, while Adobe is seen as still adjusting.
Ideas
Cheaper models boost AI spending
Cheaper open-source AI models make AI more pervasive, and lower model costs ultimately expand AI demand and AI spend.
Nvidia AI demand accelerating, earnings catalyst
Nvidia is the one chip fueling the AI revolution, with AI demand accelerating about 20% over the last few months and hyperscaler earnings coming in very strong; reported AI server price increases add to the setup, making Nvidia's Wednesday earnings a major positive catalyst and reinforcing its commanding AI infrastructure lead.
Palantir benefits from sovereign AI data
AI sovereignty is becoming a hot-button issue because enterprises want to retain control over their own data rather than hand it to OpenAI or Anthropic; Nvidia and especially Palantir are focused on sovereign AI data because controlling data can create a competitive moat and marginalize competing models.
Apple toll collector for consumer AI
Apple is the toll collector on the consumer AI revolution, and the upcoming iPhone release is less about hardware changes and more about Apple's AI strategy; with 1.5 billion iPhones, Apple is positioned to capture consumer AI demand and related free cash flow and stock upside.
Software use cases drive Microsoft, Palantir, ServiceNow
The thesis that Anthropic or AI models would eat software companies was fictional; as AI use cases are deployed, software is playing a bigger role, and Microsoft, Palantir and ServiceNow show that software's high-margin recurring revenue and free cash flow remain attractive after the software selloff.
