Real Yield 7/2/2026

Summary

The episode examines a slowing U.S. labor market, Fed Chair Warsh's stance on less forward guidance, and macro views favoring a stronger dollar. It covers easing redemption pressures at Blue Owl and risks in buy-now-pay-later securitization. Credit strategists discuss record investment-grade issuance, caution on tight spreads, a sell signal for high-yield energy, and a positive outlook for World Cup infrastructure municipal bonds.

• U.S. jobs report shows a sharp hiring slowdown, but the Fed remains focused on full employment and sticky inflation.
• Kelsey Berro expects continued slight U.S. dollar strength due to the lack of alternatives and locked-in reserve currency status.
• Blue Owl's private credit redemption requests decline, with healthy liquidity and repeat requesters, suggesting panic may be subsiding.
• Record first-half IG issuance driven by data-center capex, refinancing, and M&A is well absorbed by institutional demand from pension and insurance accounts.
• Matt Brill warns credit spreads are tight and risks are skewed to the downside, leading his team to lighten up on credit.
• Winnie Cisar recommends locking in gains in high-yield energy as spreads compress and oil prices retreat.
• Margot Kleinman highlights World Cup host cities' use of muni bonds for infrastructure as fiscally responsible and attractive for investors.
• Fed Chair Warsh aims to reduce forward guidance, putting the dot plot at risk of elimination.