How Far Will AI Angst and Gold’s Historic Rally Go | Insight with Haslinda Amin 02/27/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Market Context (Feb 2026): Asian equities are having their best February on record, driven by an infrastructure boom and South Korean chip stocks. Gold is holding above $5,000/oz, and Silver is projected to average >$100/oz.
- The AI Divergence: A "doomsday" report (referred to as the "Katrina" or "Treaty" report) has caused a plunge in US software stocks, fearing AI displacement. However, hardware/infrastructure plays (Dell, Korean Memory) are surging.
- Macro Divergence: While the Fed is expected to cut rates once or twice in late 2026/2027, the RBA (Australia) is expected to hike rates in May 2026 due to sticky inflation, creating a strong divergence trade.
- India's AI Threat: There are fears that AI could wipe out India's $200B IT services sector, potentially sparking a balance of payments crisis, though Raghuram Rajan argues this is overstated and will result in a slower transition rather than a collapse.
Trade Ideas
Dell reported earnings where "sales of its servers exceeded estimates," projecting $50 billion in AI server revenue for the fiscal quarter. Investors are reassessing "winners and losers" in AI. While software is questionable, infrastructure demand is confirmed by hard revenue numbers. Dell is successfully pivoting from legacy PC hardware to AI infrastructure. LONG Dell as an AI infrastructure play. Concerns around CapEx spending sustainability from hyperscalers.
Baidu reported a drop in revenue for the third consecutive quarter. Operating profit was down over 40% year-over-year. Baidu's core search business (cash cow) is struggling due to macro weakness and competition. While they are pivoting to AI, it is "hard to call... a turning point." Lea contrasts this with Tencent (TCEHY), which is using AI to enhance existing strong products rather than trying to save a declining core business. AVOID Baidu until sustained earnings improvement is visible; prefer Tencent. Unexpected stimulus from Beijing boosting ad spend.
While the market prices Fed cuts, Auld argues the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is "not done yet" and predicts they will hike rates again in May 2026 because "inflation [is] sticking at that higher end." Monetary policy divergence. If the US holds or cuts rates while Australia hikes, the yield differential widens in favor of the Aussie Dollar (AUD). LONG AUD vs. USD. A global hard landing crashing commodity prices (which AUD is sensitive to).
Prasad notes that while US software is selling off due to AI fears, Asian hardware is insulated. He states, "Supply is very much very tight right now, but demand is still proving to be very, very much intact" regarding the memory chip cycle. The "AI Angst" is hurting SaaS (software) but boosting the "picks and shovels" (hardware). South Korea is the epicenter of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production needed for AI. Additionally, Prasad highlights a "corporate governance story" in Korea that will lead to a valuation rerating. LONG South Korean equities and Memory manufacturers. Inventory double-ordering fears or a global recession dampening consumer electronics demand.
Raghuram Rajan
Former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India / Professor of Finance
A report warns AI could hit India's IT exports. Rajan admits "AI will replace a lot of the routine coding" and notes "silent layoffs" are happening at major firms like TCS. The "labor arbitrage" model of Indian IT is under threat from AI automation. While Rajan believes the "doomsday" scenario is exaggerated, he acknowledges a structural shift where hiring will be muted and firms must pivot to higher-value consulting or domestic markets. WATCH/NEUTRAL on legacy Indian IT Services. The growth engine (headcount addition) is broken. Indian IT firms successfully deploying AI to lower costs and increase margins faster than revenue declines.
Joni Teves
Head of Content, Blockworks
Gold is holding above $5,000/oz. Teves forecasts Gold to average $5,200 and potentially test $6,000. Crucially, she states, "We expect silver to outperform gold... average around above $100 this year." The "Gold-Silver Ratio" is tightening. As Gold becomes expensive ($5k+), investors rotate into Silver for "catch up" and industrial exposure. UBS also sees deficits in Platinum/Palladium, supporting prices despite the rally. LONG Precious Metals, with an overweight on Silver (SLV) for higher beta. High volatility in Silver; potential easing of geopolitical tensions reducing safe-haven demand.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 27, 2026, features Annabel Droulers, Robert Lea, Sally Auld, Rais Prasad, Raghuram Rajan, Joni Teves discussing DELL, BIDU, AUD, FXA, EWY, MU, INFY, WIT, GLD, PPLT, SILVER. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Annabel Droulers, Robert Lea, Sally Auld, Rais Prasad, Raghuram Rajan, Joni Teves · Tickers: DELL, BIDU, AUD, FXA, EWY, MU, INFY, WIT, GLD, PPLT, SILVER