SPX на Пике - Как я сокращаю свои риски? | Инвест ГРОГ с Солодиным
Speakers
Dmitry Solodin
— Trader / Investor
Summary
Dmitry Solodin reviews his portfolio performance, acknowledging excessive concentration in Information Technology and high beta. He outlines plans to reduce risk through trimming positions and using options for protection. He provides detailed views on several individual stocks, favoring mean reversion plays in CRM, Adobe, and Novo Nordisk, while advising to avoid Trade Desk, Palantir, and Doximity due to weak momentum or overvaluation. He also describes a risk-managed SPY strategy with protective puts.
- Portfolio review: heavy overweight in Info Tech created high beta and large drawdowns; he is reducing exposure and aiming for better sector diversification.
- S&P 500 valuation is stretched with negative real earnings yield relative to bonds, raising risks of a correction despite ongoing narrow market strength.
- Mean reversion trades identified: Salesforce (CRM) target 230-240, Adobe (ADBE) target 450, Novo Nordisk (NVO) target 80 after sharp pullbacks.
- Incyte (INCY) shows a bullish cup-and-handle pattern with accelerating fundamentals; he remains long and expects a breakout.
- Stocks to avoid or wait: Trade Desk (TTD) fundamental momentum broken, Palantir (PLTR) extremely overvalued, Doximity (DOCS) weak momentum after AI spike.
- PayPal (PYPL) is at a critical resistance; a breakout could trigger a short squeeze to $80, but confirmation is needed.
- Advocates a disciplined long SPY strategy hedged with rolling protective puts to achieve high Sharpe ratio and limited downside.
- General macro view: cautious on broad market, no new adds, focusing on risk control and mean reversion setups in select names.
Ideas
SPY with protective puts strategy
A disciplined strategy of holding SPY long while using rolling protective puts limits downside to 1-2% per drawdown, producing a high Sharpe ratio and smooth equity curve.
Avoid Trade Desk falling knife
Trade Desk (TTD) has lost fundamental momentum; guidance disappointed, growth is decelerating, and the stock is a falling knife. He advises against adding and waits for a confirmed reversal.
Palantir overvalued, await consolidation
Palantir (PLTR) has an extreme valuation (PS 63, EV 144) despite excellent fundamentals. He expects a prolonged consolidation or correction before any sustained uptrend resumes.
Incyte cup-and-handle breakout
Incyte (INCY) is forming a cup-and-handle pattern with accelerating fundamentals, and he expects a breakout to new highs.
Doximity weak momentum, avoid
Doximity (DOCS) spiked on AI hype but fundamentals are weakening with negative revenue and EPS acceleration. He exited the position and would not buy back given the poor momentum.
Novo Nordisk cheap mean reversion
Novo Nordisk (NVO) has become attractively cheap after a decline, with strong fundamentals. He holds for a mean reversion target of $80.
CRM mean reversion to 230-240
Salesforce (CRM) is preferred over ServiceNow due to lower valuation and better momentum metrics. He expects a mean reversion rally back to the moving average around 230-240.
Adobe mean reversion to 450
Adobe (ADBE) has sold off sharply, and he expects a mean reversion recovery back to its moving average near $450.
Watch PayPal for breakout to 80
PayPal (PYPL) is approaching a key resistance level. A breakout could trigger a short squeeze sending the price toward $80 quickly, but the setup is not yet confirmed.
