Ideas
Hyperliquid remains dominant, high-conviction long.
Jason is bullish HYPE and Hyperliquid. He was early to Hyperliquid, still owns all his airdrop tokens, has bought more, and never sold, calling it a long-term high-conviction hold outside Bitcoin. He expects Hyperliquid to remain the undisputed number-one perpetual DEX because it has shown resilience across metrics and the market values its cash flows and buybacks.
Holds BTC; 2026 policy backdrop bullish.
Jason still holds spot Bitcoin as a long-term high-conviction position and is medium-to-long-term bullish on 2026 because a new Fed chair, midterm elections, and an accommodative administration may support risk-on markets. Near term he is not rushing to deploy fresh capital because post-October 10 structural selling, ETF outflows, tapped-out DATs, fund liquidations, and window dressing have left minimal bid.
Digital asset treasury model is broken.
Thread Guy is bearish and avoid-oriented on digital asset treasury companies after the 2025 DAT boom collapsed. He argues DATs should not have traded at NAV premiums because they hold locked coins, there was no real marginal buyer, insiders barely made money, retail bought locked Solana at inflated prices, and the failure hurt crypto sentiment.
Stablecoin market cap likely hits $500B.
Cedus thinks stablecoin total market cap is more likely than not to hit $500B in the next year. The market was around $307B with roughly 45-50% odds, and he sees Tempo and Stripe-type settlement adoption as the swing factor that could mint massive supply.
FX stablecoin rails are a slam dunk.
Cedus is bullish on the next non-US stablecoin prediction market. He notes stablecoins are still 99.77% USD-based, but the FX market does $7.5T per day and stablecoins can disrupt correspondent banking and FX swaps. It only takes one major jurisdiction or regulatory environment for non-US stablecoin volume to grow quickly, making current low numbers interesting.
BIP 360 unlikely in 2026.
Cedus would not buy the BIP 360 implementation market above 20%. BIP 360 is only a quantum-resistant signature scheme, does not fully solve Bitcoin quantum risk, faces social issues around Satoshi's coins and technical cost and throughput constraints, so a 2026 implementation is unlikely even if quantum talk persists.
Competitor can flip Hyperliquid open interest.
Thread Guy thinks the Hyperliquid open interest flip market is underpriced and relatively likely to happen because another venue only needs to briefly flip Hyperliquid, overall perp OI should rise, equity perps are growing, and a Coinbase or Base perp DEX with farming incentives could explode open interest.
Wait for lower odds before buying.
Cedus is not interested in the Hyperliquid open interest flip market at 30%, but would take a punt at 20% or lower. He wants to see whether Aster, Lighter, and other incentivized perp DEX TGEs can gain durable OI now. If they cannot flip Hyperliquid while incentives are running, it is less likely after incentives fade, especially given Hyperliquid's resilience.
Pump Fun buybacks likely hit $500M.
Thread Guy expects Pump Fun to hit $500M in buybacks. He notes it has bought back $1.4-1.6M daily recently, has repurchased 18% of circulating supply for $237M, and only needs about $700k per day to reach the target, even as Solana and memecoin sentiment is terrible and the token is down 73% from ATH.
Pump token buybacks may destroy value.
Despite calling Pump Fun an incredible cash-generating business, Thread Guy is skeptical and avoid-oriented on the Pump token. It is down 73% from ATH, few want to touch it, communications and product plans are unclear, the streaming product stalled, and continued aggressive buybacks may waste treasury rather than improve the business.
Payment card volume unlikely by March.
Cedus thinks the crypto payment card volume market is unlikely to hit $1.5B by March 31. Cumulative spend is around $730M and December was about $120M, so Q1 would need massive growth, though he notes the growth trend is impressive and data-source changes are a wildcard.
Over four 2026 coins reach top 100.
Thread Guy likes over four coins launched in 2026 ending in the top 100. He sees MegaETH, Tempo, Paradex, a potential Base token, and other perp DEX launches plus possible NATO, Kraken, or Ink tokens as candidates. Existing top-100 coins grinding lower also helps, and while six would be tough, four should clear.
Record liquidation unlikely in 2026.
Jason leans no on a record crypto liquidation in 2026. He thinks a record would require a broad OI explosion that may be a 2027-28 phenomenon, and October 10 was an unusual ADL-driven cascade that will be difficult to beat. He would not bet no at 20%, but expects the market to resolve no.
Altcoin cap unlikely to break $150B.
Thread Guy is a hard no on altcoin market cap dipping to $150B before 2027. The October 10 wick already hit about $157B while everything was cut in half, he leans bullish for 2026, and although unlocks could pressure prices, he thinks the market would not stay that low.
World Cup boosts sports betting volume.
Thread Guy sees the sports betting volume market as a potential long because 2026 has the World Cup, a World Cup year historically drives $40-150B surges in global sports betting, and more people sports bet today than ever. With 2025 around $140B excluding December, $200B-plus looks plausible.
Quantum caps Bitcoin dominance, helps alts.
Cedus thinks quantum concerns will be a headwind specifically to Bitcoin dominance rather than necessarily Bitcoin price. If investors stay worried about quantum, other coins can still garner market cap, keeping BTC dominance from rising as much.
Policy bid lifts Bitcoin dominance.
Jason thinks higher Bitcoin dominance is more likely than the market thinks. Regulatory, SEC, and Fed chair changes, Trump administration risk-on policy, possible SBR talk, and a TradFi bid concentrated in Bitcoin would push flows into BTC without flowing down to altcoins, making it easier for BTC dominance to climb past its prior roughly 65% top.
Solana rebounds with perp and infra growth.
Cedus expects Solana to have a big 2026 after falling out of favor. He argues Solana will take perp market share for the first time via new perp DEX designs like Bulk, is dying for perp volume, has major infrastructure work including multiple concurrent proposers, and is seeing innovation in prop AMMs and pure trading.
MetaDAO fixes token-equity, becomes unicorn.
MetaDAO is Cedus's highest-conviction 2026 trade. He thinks the risk-reward is good because MetaDAO has shifted from futarchy toward an ICO platform, secured legal structures with Colosseum, brought in good VCs at market and OTC prices, and is trying to fix the broken token-versus-equity market structure. He expects it to become a unicorn and says a bad year would signal product-market-fit failure.
Prefer Solana over Ethereum among L1s.
Cedus prefers Solana over Ethereum among L1 tokens. He says ETH is hard to reason about because it requires belief in a monetary premium, while he can get behind Solana due to real activity, better assets, and trading and perp innovation. If holding one L1 token, he holds SOL over ETH.
This Thread Guy video, published January 12, 2026,
features Jason Yanowitz, Thread Guy, Ceteris
discussing HYPE, BTC, Digital asset treasury companies, Polymarket: Stablecoin market cap >$500B before 2027, Polymarket: Non-US stablecoin market cap, Polymarket: Bitcoin BIP 360 implemented in 2026, Polymarket: Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026, Polymarket: Pump Fun $500M buybacks, PUMP, Polymarket: Crypto payment card volume $1.5B by March 31, Polymarket: >4 coins launched in 2026 in top 100, Polymarket: Record crypto liquidation in 2026, Polymarket: Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027, Polymarket: US sports betting volume 2026, Bitcoin dominance, SOL, METADAO, ETH.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jason Yanowitz,
Thread Guy,
Ceteris
· Tickers:
HYPE,
BTC,
Digital asset treasury companies,
Polymarket: Stablecoin market cap >$500B before 2027,
Polymarket: Non-US stablecoin market cap,
Polymarket: Bitcoin BIP 360 implemented in 2026,
Polymarket: Hyperliquid open interest flipped in 2026,
Polymarket: Pump Fun $500M buybacks,
PUMP,
Polymarket: Crypto payment card volume $1.5B by March 31,
Polymarket: >4 coins launched in 2026 in top 100,
Polymarket: Record crypto liquidation in 2026,
Polymarket: Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027,
Polymarket: US sports betting volume 2026,
Bitcoin dominance,
SOL,
METADAO,
ETH
