FIM DO JULGAMENTO NO STF: O QUE ESPERAR AGORA? | Market Makers #412

Summary

The episode discusses the STF judgment involving Alexandre de Moraes and the institutional crisis in Brazil, alongside the Banco Master case and the 2026 presidential election. Matheus Spiess argues that political and institutional turmoil can affect markets mainly through risk premiums, fiscal-adjustment expectations, and the electoral rally in Brazilian assets. The guests also debate judicial insecurity, fiscal deterioration, retail deceleration, and the need for structural reforms.

• STF judgment on Alexandre de Moraes stalled after a request for vista, postponing a decision for up to 90 days.
• Institutional crisis may hurt the incumbent and strengthen the opposition, feeding an electoral rally in Brazilian equities.
• Matheus Spiess sees a long-term risk premium from judicial insecurity and elevated structural interest rates.
• Fiscal adjustment is seen as inevitable; a credible framework could open room for rate cuts and improve market expectations.
• Brazilian retail and consumption are decelerating amid high debt, tight monetary policy, and rising bankruptcy filings.
• The 2026 election remains uncertain, with polls showing a tight race and a fragile Lula favoritism.
• Guests discuss judicial reform, Senate elections, and Brazil's lack of long-term productivity agenda.